Major Role of Natural Wetland Loss in the Decline of Wetland Habitat Quality—Spatio-Temporal Monitoring and Predictive Analysis

Land use change significantly affects habitat quality, and the long time series exploration of dynamic variations in wetland habitat quality is of great significance to wetland conservation and management practices. Jingxin Wetland is located in the lower reaches of the Tumen River Basin, an important ecological function area in China. In recent years, under the influence of human activities and climate change, Jingxin Wetland has faced the threat of degradation and reclamation. This study investigated the dynamic evolution of habitat quality in Jingxin Wetland based on the CA-Markov model and the InVEST model at a long time scale and analyzed the drivers of habitat quality changes. Furthermore, habitat statuses under different policy orientations were explored using a multi-scenario development model. The results show that the total area of Jingxin Wetland exhibited a shrinking trend from 1964 to 2019, the wetland landscape was more fragmented, and the loss of natural wetland (marsh wetland) was serious. Consequently, wetland habitat quality has declined. According to scenario analysis, the study area should firmly follow the ecological conservation route in the future, through which the encroachment of human activities on wetlands can be effectively reduced and habitat conditions can be effectively improved. Both natural and economic development scenarios would result in the shrinkage of wetlands, which will extend the trend of declining habitat quality. It is noteworthy that the loss of wetland can be effectively reduced by implementing ecological conservation policies, which would reduce the degradation of wetland habitat quality. The results of this study can provide valuable references for wetland ecological conservation and ecological management practices.