IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i2p934-d724881.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land-Use/Land Cover Changes Contribute to Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Akhtar Rehman

    (School of Environmental Studies, University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430076, China)

  • Jun Qin

    (School of Environmental Studies, University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430076, China)

  • Amjad Pervez

    (School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China)

  • Muhammad Sadiq Khan

    (State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China)

  • Siddique Ullah

    (Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad 22060, Pakistan)

  • Khalid Ahmad

    (Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad 22060, Pakistan)

  • Nazir Ur Rehman

    (Department of Geology, Khushal Khan Khattak University, Karak 27200, Pakistan)

Abstract

Land-use/land cover (LULC) changes have an impact on land surface temperature (LST) at the local, regional, and global scales. To simulate the LULC and LST changes of the environmentally important area of northern Pakistan, this research focused on spatio-temporal LULC and associated LST changes since 1987 and made predictions to 2047. We classified LULC from Landsat TM and ETM data, using the maximum probability supervised categorization approach. LST was retrieved using the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE) methodology. Furthermore, we simulated LULC using the integrated approaches of Cellular Automata (CA) and Weighted Evidence (WE) and used a regression model to predict LST. The built-up areas and vegetation have increased by 2.1% and 11% due to a decline in the barren land by −8.5% during the last 30 years. The LULC is expected to increase, particularly the built-up and vegetation classes by 2.74% and 13.66%, respectively, and the barren land would decline by −4.2% by 2047. Consequently, the higher LST classes (i.e., 27 °C to <30 °C and ≥30 °C) soared up by about 25.18% and 34.26%, respectively, during the study period, which would further expand to 30.19% and 14.97% by 2047. The lower LST class (i.e., 12 °C to <21 °C) indicated a downtrend of about −41.29% and would further decrease to −3.13% in the next 30 years. The study findings are useful for planning and management, especially for climatologists, land-use planners, and researchers in sustainable land use with rapid urbanization.

Suggested Citation

  • Akhtar Rehman & Jun Qin & Amjad Pervez & Muhammad Sadiq Khan & Siddique Ullah & Khalid Ahmad & Nazir Ur Rehman, 2022. "Land-Use/Land Cover Changes Contribute to Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-15, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:934-:d:724881
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/2/934/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/2/934/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cohen, Barney, 2004. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-51, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huzaifah Zahran & Muhammad Zeeshan Ali & Khan Zaib Jadoon & Hammad Ullah Khan Yousafzai & Khalil Ur Rahman & Nadeem Ahmed Sheikh, 2023. "Impact of Urbanization on Groundwater and Surface Temperature Changes: A Case Study of Lahore City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Bo & Li, Fan & Feng, Shuyi & Shen, Tong, 2020. "Transfer of development rights, farmland preservation, and economic growth: a case study of Chongqing’s land quotas trading program," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Fikri Zul Fahmi, 2015. "Regional Distribution of Creative and Cultural Industries in Indonesia," ERSA conference papers ersa15p914, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Laurent Parrot & Clovis Dongmo & Michel Ndoumbé & Christine Poubom, 2008. "Horticulture, livelihoods, and urban transition in Africa: evidence from South‐West Cameroon," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 245-256, September.
    4. Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T. & Ortiz, Danica Aisa P. & Go, John Juliard & Duante, Charmaine & Gonzales, Rosa C. & Mendoza, Laurita R. & Reyes, Clarissa & Elgo, Frances Rose & Aldeon, Melanie P., 2012. "Inequities in Noncommunicable Diseases," Discussion Papers DP 2012-04, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    5. Wei Wang & Yuzhe Wu, 2020. "Exploring the Coordination Mechanism for Public Housing Supply with Urban Growth Management: A Case Study of Chongqing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-16, May.
    6. Sean Fox & Robin Bloch & Jose Monroy, 2018. "Understanding the dynamics of Nigeria’s urban transition: A refutation of the ‘stalled urbanisation’ hypothesis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(5), pages 947-964, April.
    7. Tandel, Vaidehi & Hiranandani, Komal & Kapoor, Mudit, 2019. "What’s in a definition? A study on the suitability of the current urban definition in India through its employment guarantee programme," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 69-84.
    8. Jing Yang & Feng Shi & Yizhong Sun & Jie Zhu, 2019. "A Cellular Automata Model Constrained by Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of the Urban Development Strategy for Simulating Land-use Change: A Case Study in Nanjing City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Gurgel, Angelo Costa, 2007. "Trade Agreements and their Impacts on the Familiar Agriculture in Brazil," Conference papers 331587, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. José Armando Cobián Álvarez & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2019. "The cost of floods in developing countries’ megacities: a hedonic price analysis of the Jakarta housing market, Indonesia," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(4), pages 555-577, October.
    11. Rebecca Rasch, 2014. "Measuring the Middle Class in Middle Income Countries," LIS Working papers 611, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    12. Willem Paling, 2012. "Planning a Future for Phnom Penh: Mega Projects, Aid Dependence and Disjointed Governance," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(13), pages 2889-2912, October.
    13. Jill Wigle, 2010. "Social Relations, Property and ‘Peripheral’ Informal Settlement: The Case of Ampliación San Marcos, Mexico City," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(2), pages 411-436, February.
    14. Michail Fragkias & Karen C Seto, 2007. "Modeling Urban Growth in Data-Sparse Environments: A New Approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(5), pages 858-883, October.
    15. Carmen Lizarraga & Ciro Jaramillo & Alejandro L. Grindlay, 2011. "Urban development and transport disadvantage: Methodology to evaluate social transport needs in Latin American cities," ERSA conference papers ersa11p936, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Ruci Wang & Ahmed Derdouri & Yuji Murayama, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    17. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2007. "Absolute poverty measures for the developing world, 1981-2004," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4211, The World Bank.
    18. Headey, Derek & Bezemer, Dirk & Hazell, Peter B., 2008. "Agricultural exit problems: Causes and consequences," IFPRI discussion papers 802, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Sara T Borgström, 2009. "Patterns and Challenges of Urban Nature Conservation—A Study of Southern Sweden," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 41(11), pages 2671-2685, November.
    20. Anirudh Krishna, 2018. "Globalised growth in largely agrarian contexts: the urban–rural divide," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-101-18, GDI, The University of Manchester.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:934-:d:724881. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.