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The Migration Influence on the Forecasting of Health Care Budget Expenditures in the Direction of Sustainability: Case of Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Tetiana Zatonatska

    (Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University, 03-022 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Olena Liashenko

    (Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University, 03-022 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Yana Fareniuk

    (Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University, 03-022 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, West Ukrainian National University, 46-020 Ternopil, Ukraine
    Institute of Public Administration and Business, WSEI University, 20-209 Lublin, Poland)

  • Artur Dmowski

    (Institute of Public Administration and Business, WSEI University, 20-209 Lublin, Poland)

  • Marzena Cichorzewska

    (Faculty of Management, Lublin University of Technology, 20-618 Lublin, Poland)

Abstract

The start of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war caused the largest wave of migration in the 21st century. More than five million Ukrainian citizens left for EU countries within a few months of the start of the conflict. The purpose of this paper is to forecast the level of health care expenditure in Ukraine for 2023–2024, considering the scale of migration and the fall in the level of GDP. The authors propose three scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s economy in 2023–2024, taking into account changes in the age structure of the population, migration, and the amount of health care expenditure: (1) Pessimistic, in which economic growth will resume only in 2024, with a GDP rise of 5.6%, provided that the war concludes at the end of 2022. Under this scenario, inflation will be about 21% in 2023–2024, a slight decrease compared with the previous year. Some 12% of the population of Ukraine will have emigrated, resulting in a corresponding 12% drop in health care expenditure in 2023–2024. (2) Basic (realistic), in which economic growth will be about 5% in 2023–2024, inflation will be under 10%, and migration will have accounted for 5% of the country’s population. Under this scenario, there will be an increase in health care expenditure of more than 40% in 2023–2024. (3) Optimistic, according to which rapid economic growth is expected in 2023–2024, inflation will not exceed 7%, the majority of those who left Ukraine in the early months of the war will return, and health care expenditure will increase by more than 70% in 2023–2024. The methodology of forecasting public expenditure on health care has been based on a six-step cohort method. The results have indicated that the cost of updating the age structure of Ukraine’s population every year will decrease due to the aging of the population, and the overall impact of demographic processes will be negative. The impact of mass migration due to the war creates a significant change in health care costs, requiring administrative bodies to monitor the situation promptly and make appropriate changes to the structure of budget expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Tetiana Zatonatska & Olena Liashenko & Yana Fareniuk & Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi & Artur Dmowski & Marzena Cichorzewska, 2022. "The Migration Influence on the Forecasting of Health Care Budget Expenditures in the Direction of Sustainability: Case of Ukraine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:21:p:14501-:d:963500
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Who’s Going Broke? Comparing Growth in Healthcare Costs in Ten OECD Countries," Working Papers id:286, eSocialSciences.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Maciej Duszczyk & Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2022. "The War in Ukraine and Migration to Poland: Outlook and Challenges," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 164-170, May.
    4. Christian Hagist & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2005. "Who's Going Broke? Comparing Growth in Healthcare Costs in Ten OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 11833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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