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A Fuzzy-AHP Methodology for Planning the Risk Management of Natural Hazards in Surface Mining Projects

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  • Philip-Mark Spanidis

    (ASPROFOS Engineering, Division of Project Management, 176 75 Athens, Greece)

  • Christos Roumpos

    (Public Power Corporation of Greece, Mining Engineering Department, 104 32 Athens, Greece)

  • Francis Pavloudakis

    (Public Power Corporation of Greece, Mining Engineering Department, 104 32 Athens, Greece)

Abstract

Surface mining projects are vulnerable to natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, soil instabilities, and epidemic crises) which constitute the primary source of risks which affect the mining operations. In the framework of sustainable planning and development of such projects, the investigation of risk impacts is essential for taking the appropriate preventive measures before disastrous events appear in a mine. This paper proposes a methodology for the risk assessment of natural hazards in surface mining projects using the triangular Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) for the determination of the probability of risk occurrence, combined with the Expected Value (EV) function, the Monte Carlo simulation, and the Program Evaluation Review Technique PERT method for making predictions of cost and time overruns. A case study of a hazardous event with impacts in the operations of a surface mine demonstrates the methodology as a flexible and low-cost tool for mining executives. This tool is useful in the planning stage of pre-disaster management projects in the mineral industry, considering mine sustainability views. The research work also investigates critical technical and economic aspects.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip-Mark Spanidis & Christos Roumpos & Francis Pavloudakis, 2021. "A Fuzzy-AHP Methodology for Planning the Risk Management of Natural Hazards in Surface Mining Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:2369-:d:503982
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. H. M. Tah & V. Carr, 2000. "A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 491-500.
    2. Vishal Gupta, 2018. "Comparative Performance of Contradictory and Non-Contradictory Judgement Matrices in AHP Under Qualitative and Quantitative Metrics," International Journal of Decision Support System Technology (IJDSST), IGI Global, vol. 10(1), pages 21-38, January.
    3. Philip-Mark Spanidis & Christos Roumpos & Francis Pavloudakis, 2020. "A Multi-Criteria Approach for the Evaluation of Low Risk Restoration Projects in Continuous Surface Lignite Mines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, May.
    4. Shou Qing Wang & Mohammed Fadhil Dulaimi & Muhammad Yousuf Aguria, 2004. "Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 237-252.
    5. Opricovic, Serafim & Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung, 2004. "Compromise solution by MCDM methods: A comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 445-455, July.
    6. Chang, Da-Yong, 1996. "Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 649-655, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nasanjargal Erdenekhuu & Balázs Kocsi & Domicián Máté, 2022. "A Risk-Based Analysis Approach to Sustainable Construction by Environmental Impacts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Georgios K. Koulinas & Alexandros S. Xanthopoulos & Konstantinos A. Sidas & Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis, 2021. "Risks Ranking in a Desalination Plant Construction Project with a Hybrid AHP, Risk Matrix, and Simulation-Based Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3221-3233, August.
    3. Philip-Mark Spanidis & Christos Roumpos & Francis Pavloudakis, 2023. "Evaluation of Strategies for the Sustainable Transformation of Surface Coal Mines Using a Combined SWOT–AHP Methodology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-23, May.

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