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Economic Downturns and Land-Use Change: A Spatial Analysis of Urban Transformations in Rome (Italy) Using a Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis

Author

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  • Antonio Tomao

    (Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Research Centre for Forestry and Wood, Viale Santa Margherita 80, I-52100 Arezzo, Italy
    Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, Via Armaroli 43, I-62100 Macerata, Italy)

  • Walter Mattioli

    (Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Research Centre for Forestry and Wood, Via Valle della Quistione, 27, I-00166 Rome, Italy)

  • David Fanfani

    (Architecture Department, University of Florence, Via della Mattonaia 8, I-50121 Florence, Italy)

  • Carlotta Ferrara

    (Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Research Centre for Forestry and Wood, Via Valle della Quistione, 27, I-00166 Rome, Italy)

  • Giovanni Quaranta

    (Mathematics, Computer Science and Economics Department, University of Basilicata, Viale dell’Ateneo Lucano, I-85100 Potenza, Italy)

  • Rosanna Salvia

    (Mathematics, Computer Science and Economics Department, University of Basilicata, Viale dell’Ateneo Lucano, I-85100 Potenza, Italy)

  • Luca Salvati

    (Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, Via Armaroli 43, I-62100 Macerata, Italy)

Abstract

Globally, processes that drive urbanization have mostly evolved within economic downturns. Economic crises have been more severe and frequent, particularly in the Mediterranean region. However, studies on the recession effects on urbanization are limited. The present study explores possible differences in spatial direction and intensity of land-use change trajectories at two time intervals (2006–2012, 2012–2018) using high-resolution Copernicus Land Urban Atlas images in the Rome metropolitan area. To this aim, a landscape ecology classical approach based on land-use metric analysis combined with a multivariate spatial analysis has been carried out. Results have identified different land-use change patterns during expansion and recession. “Greening”, defined as the conversion of urban marginal areas into croplands and forests, increased during the recession. At the same time, the rate of urban expansion into rural areas decreased, thus indicating a beneficial effect of economic downturns in reducing urban sprawl.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Tomao & Walter Mattioli & David Fanfani & Carlotta Ferrara & Giovanni Quaranta & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Economic Downturns and Land-Use Change: A Spatial Analysis of Urban Transformations in Rome (Italy) Using a Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-14, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11293-:d:655245
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lorenza Gasparella & Antonio Tomao & Mariagrazia Agrimi & Piermaria Corona & Luigi Portoghesi & Anna Barbati, 2017. "Italian stone pine forests under Rome’s siege: learning from the past to protect their future," Landscape Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 211-222, February.
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    3. Tomao, Antonio & Quaranta, Giovanni & Salvia, Rosanna & Vinci, Sabato & Salvati, Luca, 2021. "Revisiting the ‘southern mood’? Post-crisis Mediterranean urbanities between economic downturns and land-use change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Gollini, Isabella & Lu, Binbin & Charlton, Martin & Brunsdon, Christopher & Harris, Paul, 2015. "GWmodel: An R Package for Exploring Spatial Heterogeneity Using Geographically Weighted Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 63(i17).
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    6. Andrea Colantoni & Gianluca Egidi & Giovanni Quaranta & Roberto D’Alessandro & Sabato Vinci & Rosario Turco & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Sustainable Land Management, Wildfire Risk and the Role of Grazing in Mediterranean Urban-Rural Interfaces: A Regional Approach from Greece," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, January.
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    8. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Antonio Tomao & Giovanni Quaranta & Luca Salvati & Antonio Gimenez Morera, 2020. "Going toward Resilience? Town Planning, Peri-Urban Landscapes, and the Expansion of Athens, Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    9. Salvati, Luca & Ciommi, Maria Teresa & Serra, Pere & Chelli, Francesco M., 2019. "Exploring the spatial structure of housing prices under economic expansion and stagnation: The role of socio-demographic factors in metropolitan Rome, Italy," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 143-152.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yajun Ma & Ping Zhang & Kaixu Zhao & Yong Zhou & Sidong Zhao, 2022. "A Dynamic Performance and Differentiation Management Policy for Urban Construction Land Use Change in Gansu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-31, June.
    3. D'Agata, Alessia & Alaimo, Leonardo Salvatore & Cudlín, Pavel & Salvati, Luca, 2023. "Easy come, easy go: Short-term land-use dynamics vis à vis regional economic downturns," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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