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A Multi-Risk Methodology for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Coastal Zones

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Listed:
  • Valentina Gallina

    () (Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, Mestre, 30172 Venezia, Italy)

  • Silvia Torresan

    () (Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, Mestre, 30172 Venezia, Italy
    Fondazione Centro-Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Division, Via della Libertà 12, Marghera, 30175 Venezia, Italy)

  • Alex Zabeo

    () (Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, Mestre, 30172 Venezia, Italy)

  • Andrea Critto

    () (Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, Mestre, 30172 Venezia, Italy
    Fondazione Centro-Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Division, Via della Libertà 12, Marghera, 30175 Venezia, Italy)

  • Thomas Glade

    () (Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitätsstraße 7, A-1010 Vienna, Austria)

  • Antonio Marcomini

    () (Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, Mestre, 30172 Venezia, Italy
    Fondazione Centro-Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Division, Via della Libertà 12, Marghera, 30175 Venezia, Italy)

Abstract

Climate change threatens coastal areas, posing significant risks to natural and human systems, including coastal erosion and inundation. This paper presents a multi-risk approach integrating multiple climate-related hazards and exposure and vulnerability factors across different spatial units and temporal scales. The multi-hazard assessment employs an influence matrix to analyze the relationships among hazards (sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and storm surge) and their disjoint probability. The multi-vulnerability considers the susceptibility of the exposed receptors (wetlands, beaches, and urban areas) to different hazards based on multiple indicators (dunes, shoreline evolution, and urbanization rate). The methodology was applied in the North Adriatic coast, producing a ranking of multi-hazard risks by means of GIS maps and statistics. The results highlight that the higher multi-hazard score (meaning presence of all investigated hazards) is near the coastline while multi-vulnerability is relatively high in the whole case study, especially for beaches, wetlands, protected areas, and river mouths. The overall multi-risk score presents a trend similar to multi-hazard and shows that beaches is the receptor most affected by multiple risks (60% of surface in the higher multi-risk classes). Risk statistics were developed for coastal municipalities and local stakeholders to support the setting of adaptation priorities and coastal zone management plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Gallina & Silvia Torresan & Alex Zabeo & Andrea Critto & Thomas Glade & Antonio Marcomini, 2020. "A Multi-Risk Methodology for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Coastal Zones," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(9), pages 1-28, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:9:p:3697-:d:353564
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melanie Kappes & Margreth Keiler & Kirsten Elverfeldt & Thomas Glade, 2012. "Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1925-1958, November.
    2. Ortwin Renn & Klaus Lucas & Armin Haas & Carlo Jaeger, 2019. "Things are different today: the challenge of global systemic risks," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 401-415, April.
    3. Antonella Marsico & Stefania Lisco & Valeria Lo Presti & Fabrizio Antonioli & Alessandro Amorosi & Marco Anzidei & Giacomo Deiana & Giovanni De Falco & Alessandro Fontana & Giorgio Fontolan & Massimo , 2017. "Flooding scenario for four Italian coastal plains using three relative sea level rise models," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 961-967, November.
    4. Stefan Greiving & Mark Fleischhauer & Johannes Luckenkotter, 2006. "A Methodology for an integrated risk assessment of spatially relevant hazards," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 1-19.
    5. Valentina Giannini & Alessio Bellucci & Silvia Torresan, 2016. "Sharing Skills and Needs between Providers and Users of Climate Information to Create Climate Services: Lessons from the Northern Adriatic Case Study," Working Papers 2016.38, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Maxx Dilley & Robert S. Chen & Uwe Deichmann & Arthur L. Lerner-Lam & Margaret Arnold, 2005. "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7376, Juni.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    multi-risk maps; Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis; climate adaptation; North Adriatic coast;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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