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Modelling Bioeconomy Scenario Pathways for the Forest Products Markets with Emerging Lignocellulosic Products

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  • Christian Morland

    (Thuenen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Franziska Schier

    (Thuenen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

The forest-based sector plays diverse roles among the emerging bio-based industries. The goal of this study is to examine how forest product markets could develop in the face of a growing bioeconomy and which interdependencies occur between traditional and emerging forest-based sectors. Therefore, we analyze the development of dissolving pulp together with lignocellulose-based textile fibres and chemical derivatives in a partial equilibrium model. For this purpose, we extend the product structure of the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) and analyze three different bioeconomy scenarios from 2015 to 2050. The simulation results show that, in a scenario where the world is changing toward a sustainable bio-economy, wood consumption patterns shift away from fuelwood (−30% by 2050) and classical paper products (−32% by 2050) towards emerging wood-based products. In this context, the dissolving pulp subsector could outpace the continuously shrinking paper pulp subsector by 2050. To develop in this way, the dissolving pulp subsector mainly uses released resources from the decreasing paper pulp production. Simultaneously, wood-based panels are finding increasing application (+196% by 2050) and thus are taking over potential markets for sawn wood, for which production growth remains limited. Our results also show that, until 2050, the production of many wood-based products will take place mainly in Asia instead of North America and Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Morland & Franziska Schier, 2020. "Modelling Bioeconomy Scenario Pathways for the Forest Products Markets with Emerging Lignocellulosic Products," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:24:p:10540-:d:463260
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Buongiorno, Joseph & Rougieux, Paul & Barkaoui, Ahmed & Zhu, Shushuai & Harou, Patrice, 2014. "Potential impact of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on the global forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 252-266.
    2. Morland, Christian & Schier, Franziska & Janzen, Niels & Weimar, Holger, 2018. "Supply and demand functions for global wood markets: Specification and plausibility testing of econometric models within the global forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 92-105.
    3. van Kooten, G. Cornelis & Johnston, Craig, 2014. "Global impacts of Russian log export restrictions and the Canada–U.S. lumber dispute: Modeling trade in logs and lumber," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 54-66.
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    2. Hetemäki, L. & D'Amato, D. & Giurca, A. & Hurmekoski, E., 2024. "Synergies and trade-offs in the European forest bioeconomy research: State of the art and the way forward," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    3. Jakob Hoffmann & Johannes Glückler, 2023. "Technological Cohesion and Convergence: A Main Path Analysis of the Bioeconomy, 1900–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Sandro Sacchelli & Costanza Borghi & Roberto Fratini & Iacopo Bernetti, 2021. "Assessment and Valorization of Non-Wood Forest Products in Europe: A Quantitative Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.

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