IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i24p10540-d463260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Bioeconomy Scenario Pathways for the Forest Products Markets with Emerging Lignocellulosic Products

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Morland

    (Thuenen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Franziska Schier

    (Thuenen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

The forest-based sector plays diverse roles among the emerging bio-based industries. The goal of this study is to examine how forest product markets could develop in the face of a growing bioeconomy and which interdependencies occur between traditional and emerging forest-based sectors. Therefore, we analyze the development of dissolving pulp together with lignocellulose-based textile fibres and chemical derivatives in a partial equilibrium model. For this purpose, we extend the product structure of the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) and analyze three different bioeconomy scenarios from 2015 to 2050. The simulation results show that, in a scenario where the world is changing toward a sustainable bio-economy, wood consumption patterns shift away from fuelwood (−30% by 2050) and classical paper products (−32% by 2050) towards emerging wood-based products. In this context, the dissolving pulp subsector could outpace the continuously shrinking paper pulp subsector by 2050. To develop in this way, the dissolving pulp subsector mainly uses released resources from the decreasing paper pulp production. Simultaneously, wood-based panels are finding increasing application (+196% by 2050) and thus are taking over potential markets for sawn wood, for which production growth remains limited. Our results also show that, until 2050, the production of many wood-based products will take place mainly in Asia instead of North America and Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Morland & Franziska Schier, 2020. "Modelling Bioeconomy Scenario Pathways for the Forest Products Markets with Emerging Lignocellulosic Products," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:24:p:10540-:d:463260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/24/10540/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/24/10540/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buongiorno, Joseph & Rougieux, Paul & Barkaoui, Ahmed & Zhu, Shushuai & Harou, Patrice, 2014. "Potential impact of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on the global forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 252-266.
    2. Morland, Christian & Schier, Franziska & Janzen, Niels & Weimar, Holger, 2018. "Supply and demand functions for global wood markets: Specification and plausibility testing of econometric models within the global forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 92-105.
    3. van Kooten, G. Cornelis & Johnston, Craig, 2014. "Global impacts of Russian log export restrictions and the Canada–U.S. lumber dispute: Modeling trade in logs and lumber," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 54-66.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jakob Hoffmann & Johannes Glückler, 2023. "Technological Cohesion and Convergence: A Main Path Analysis of the Bioeconomy, 1900–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Sandro Sacchelli & Costanza Borghi & Roberto Fratini & Iacopo Bernetti, 2021. "Assessment and Valorization of Non-Wood Forest Products in Europe: A Quantitative Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buongiorno, Joseph & Johnston, Craig & Zhu, Shushuai, 2017. "An assessment of gains and losses from international trade in the forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 209-217.
    2. Skjerstad, Svein H.F. & Kallio, A. Maarit I. & Bergland, Olvar & Solberg, Birger, 2021. "New elasticities and projections of global demand for coniferous sawnwood," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2014. "Benefits and costs of impeding free trade: Revisiting British Columbia's restrictions on log exports," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 333-347.
    4. Johnston, Craig M.T. & Parajuli, Rajan, 2017. "What's next in the U.S.-Canada softwood lumber dispute? An economic analysis of restrictive trade policy measures," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P1), pages 135-146.
    5. Lauri, Pekka & Forsell, Nicklas & Di Fulvio, Fulvio & Snäll, Tord & Havlik, Petr, 2021. "Material substitution between coniferous, non-coniferous and recycled biomass – Impacts on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Ying Lin & Henry W. Kinnucan, 2020. "The optimal export tax for a primary commodity in a vertical market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 909-922, November.
    7. Wang, S. & An, H. & Chang, W.-Y. & Gaston, C., 2018. "The economic effect of genomic technology on the forestry industry," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277443, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Lin, Ying & Zhang, Daowei, 2017. "Incidence of Russian log export tax: A vertical log-lumber model," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(PB), pages 69-77.
    9. Parajuli, Rajan & Sarangi, Sudipta & Chang, Sun Joseph & Hill, R. Carter, 2016. "The United States-Canada softwood lumber trade: An actual versus optimal export tax," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 112-119.
    10. Johnston, Craig M.T. & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2016. "Global trade impacts of increasing Europe's bioenergy demand," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 27-44.
    11. Brusselaers, Jan & Buysse, Jeroen, 2021. "Legality requirements for wood import in the EU: Who wins, who loses?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla, 2020. "Representations of the Forest Sector in Economic Models [Les représentations du secteur forestier dans les modèles économiques]," Post-Print hal-03088084, HAL.
    13. Shahi, Kabindra & Siry, Jacek & Bettinger, Pete & Li, Yanshu & Smith, Jonathan, 2023. "Estimating timber supply elasticity of private forest landowners in the US South," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Johnston, Craig M.T. & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2017. "Impact of inefficient quota allocation under the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute: A calibrated mixed complementarity approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 71-80.
    15. Schier, Franziska & Morland, Christian & Dieter, Matthias & Weimar, Holger, 2021. "Estimating supply and demand elasticities of dissolving pulp, lignocellulose-based chemical derivatives and textile fibres in an emerging forest-based bioeconomy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Yin, Zhonghua & Wang, Fang & Gan, Jianbang, 2020. "Spatial spillover effects of global forest product trade," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    17. Johnston, Craig M.T. & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2014. "Modelling Bi-lateral Forest Product Trade Flows: Experiencing Vertical and Horizontal Chain Optimization," Working Papers 197898, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
    18. Parajuli, Rajan & Zhang, Daowei & Kosman, Keta, 2018. "Province specific impacts of the 2006 United States-Canada Softwood Lumber Agreement: A seemingly unrelated regression approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-6.
    19. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla & Philippe Delacote, 2020. "Evolving Integrated Models From Narrower Economic Tools : the Example of Forest Sector Models," Post-Print hal-02512330, HAL.
    20. Borzykowski, Nicolas, 2019. "A supply-demand modeling of the Swiss roundwood market: Actors responsiveness and CO2 implications," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-113.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:24:p:10540-:d:463260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.