IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i24p10387-d460825.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geospatial Simulation Model of Deforestation and Reforestation Using Multicriteria Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta

    (Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, Universidad Autonoma de Sinaloa, Culiacan 80013, Mexico)

  • Wenseslao Plata-Rocha

    (Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, Universidad Autonoma de Sinaloa, Culiacan 80013, Mexico)

  • Carlos Eduardo Pacheco-Angulo

    (Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales, Universidad de los Andes, Merida 5110, Venezuela)

  • Cuauhtémoc Franco-Ochoa

    (Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, Universidad Autonoma de Sinaloa, Culiacan 80013, Mexico)

  • Jesus Gabriel Rangel-Peraza

    (Division de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigacion, Tecnologico Nacional de Mexico—Instituto Tecnologico de Culiacan, Culiacan 80013, Mexico)

Abstract

Deforestation is an anthropic phenomenon that negatively affects the environment and therefore the climate, the carbon cycle, biodiversity and the sustainability of agriculture and drinking water sources. Deforestation is counteracted by reforestation processes, which is caused by the natural regeneration of forests or by the establishment of plantations. The present research is focused on generating a simulation model to predict the deforestation and reforestation for 2030 and 2050 using geospatial analysis techniques and multicriteria evaluation. The case study is the North Pacific Basin, which is one of the areas with the greatest loss of forest cover in Mexico. The results of the spatial analysis of forest dynamics determined that the forest area in 2030 would be 98,713.52 km 2 , while in 2050 would be 101,239.8 km 2 . The mean annual deforestation and reforestation expected in the study area is 115 and 193.84 km 2 , for the 2014–2030 period, while mean annual deforestation and reforestation values of 95 and 221.31 km 2 are expected for the 2030–2050 period. Therefore, considering the forest cover predicted by the deforestation and reforestation model, a carbon capture of 16,209.67 ton/C was estimated for the 2014–2030 period and 587,596.01 ton/C for the 2030–2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta & Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Carlos Eduardo Pacheco-Angulo & Cuauhtémoc Franco-Ochoa & Jesus Gabriel Rangel-Peraza, 2020. "Geospatial Simulation Model of Deforestation and Reforestation Using Multicriteria Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:24:p:10387-:d:460825
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/24/10387/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/24/10387/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irina, Llamas-Torres & Javier, Bello-Pineda & Teresa, Castillo-Burguete María & Eurídice, Leyequien-Abarca & Luz María del Carmen, Calvo-Irabien, 2019. "Integrating ecological and socioeconomic criteria in a GIS-based multicriteria-multiobjective analysis to develop sustainable harvesting strategies for Mexican oregano Lippia graveolens Kunth, a non-t," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 668-679.
    2. Kate Dooley & Sivan Kartha, 2018. "Land-based negative emissions: risks for climate mitigation and impacts on sustainable development," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 79-98, February.
    3. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    4. Mohebalian, Phillip M. & Aguilar, Francisco X., 2018. "Design of tropical forest conservation contracts considering risk of deforestation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 451-462.
    5. Li An & Marc Linderman & Jiaguo Qi & Ashton Shortridge & Jianguo Liu, 2005. "Exploring Complexity in a Human–Environment System: An Agent-Based Spatial Model for Multidisciplinary and Multiscale Integration," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 95(1), pages 54-79, March.
    6. Overmars, Koen P. & Verburg, Peter H., 2006. "Multilevel modelling of land use from field to village level in the Philippines," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 435-456, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lidia Yadira Perez-Aguilar & Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta & Cuauhtémoc Franco-Ochoa, 2022. "Aridity Analysis Using a Prospective Geospatial Simulation Model in This Mid-Century for the Northwest Region of Mexico," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    2. María Alejandra Quintero-Morales & Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Sergio Alberto Monjardín-Armenta & Vicente Olimón-Andalón & Edith Hilario Torres-Montoya, 2021. "Geospatial Simulation Model of Sustainable Mangrove Development Scenarios for the Years 2030 and 2050 in Marismas Nacionales, Mexico," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lei Wan & Huiyu Liu & Haibo Gong & Yujia Ren, 2020. "Effects of Climate and Land Use changes on Vegetation Dynamics in the Yangtze River Delta, China Based on Abrupt Change Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Joyeeta Gupta & Aarti Gupta & Courtney Vegelin, 2022. "Equity, justice and the SDGs: lessons learnt from two decades of INEA scholarship," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 393-409, June.
    3. Agni Kalfagianni & Oran R. Young, 2022. "The politics of multilateral environmental agreements lessons from 20 years of INEA," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 245-262, June.
    4. Zheng Yuan & Baohua Wen & Cheng He & Jin Zhou & Zhonghua Zhou & Feng Xu, 2022. "Application of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis to Rural Spatial Sustainability Evaluation: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-31, May.
    5. Zhang, Qianwen & Gao, Wujun & Su, Shiliang & Weng, Min & Cai, Zhongliang, 2017. "Biophysical and socioeconomic determinants of tea expansion: Apportioning their relative importance for sustainable land use policy," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 438-447.
    6. Shaikh Shamim Hasan & Xiangzheng Deng & Zhihui Li & Dongdong Chen, 2017. "Projections of Future Land Use in Bangladesh under the Background of Baseline, Ecological Protection and Economic Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, March.
    7. Taylor M. Oshan & Levi J. Wolf & Mehak Sachdeva & Sarah Bardin & A. Stewart Fotheringham, 2022. "A scoping review on the multiplicity of scale in spatial analysis," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 293-324, July.
    8. Li, Sheng & Nadolnyak, Denis & Hartarska, Valentina, 2019. "Agricultural land conversion: Impacts of economic and natural risk factors in a coastal area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 380-390.
    9. Neumann, Kathleen & Stehfest, Elke & Verburg, Peter H. & Siebert, Stefan & Müller, Christoph & Veldkamp, Tom, 2011. "Exploring global irrigation patterns: A multilevel modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(9), pages 703-713.
    10. Mohamed Amara, 2015. "Multilevel Modelling of Individual Fertility Decisions in Tunisia: Household and Regional Contextual Effects," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(2), pages 477-499, November.
    11. Femke J. M. M. Nijsse & Jean-Francois Mercure & Nadia Ameli & Francesca Larosa & Sumit Kothari & Jamie Rickman & Pim Vercoulen & Hector Pollitt, 2023. "The momentum of the solar energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Ito, Junichi & Feuer, Hart N. & Kitano, Shinichi & Asahi, Haruka, 2019. "Assessing the effectiveness of Japan's community-based direct payment scheme for hilly and mountainous areas," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 62-75.
    13. Xue Wang & Xiubin Li, 2018. "Irrigation Water Availability and Winter Wheat Abandonment in the North China Plain (NCP): Findings from a Case Study in Cangxian County of Hebei Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16, January.
    14. Jahel, Camille & Baron, Christian & Vall, Eric & Karambiri, Medina & Castets, Mathieu & Coulibaly, Kalifa & Bégué, Agnès & Lo Seen, Danny, 2017. "Spatial modelling of agro-ecosystem dynamics across scales: A case in the cotton region of West-Burkina Faso," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 303-315.
    15. Díez-Echavarría, Luisa Diana & Ríos-Echeverri,Carolina, 2021. "Dinámica de participación en esquemas de pago por servicios ambientales urbanos: análisis de la intención," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 21(1), June.
    16. Abdus Samie & Xiangzheng Deng & Siqi Jia & Dongdong Chen, 2017. "Scenario-Based Simulation on Dynamics of Land-Use-Land-Cover Change in Punjab Province, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-17, July.
    17. Tauseef Jamal & Muhammad Zahid & José Moleiro Martins & Mário Nuno Mata & Haseeb Ur Rahman & Pedro Neves Mata, 2021. "Perceived Green Human Resource Management Practices and Corporate Sustainability: Multigroup Analysis and Major Industries Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.
    18. Mavhura, Emmanuel & Mushure, Sharon, 2019. "Forest and wildlife resource-conservation efforts based on indigenous knowledge: The case of Nharira community in Chikomba district, Zimbabwe," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 83-90.
    19. Chamberlin, Jordan & Jayne, T.S., 2013. "Unpacking the Meaning of ‘Market Access’: Evidence from Rural Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 245-264.
    20. Kristin Rosendal & Jon Birger Skjærseth & Steinar Andresen, 2019. "Knowledge-based management of protected areas and hydropower: the case of Norway," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 515-530, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:24:p:10387-:d:460825. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.