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Geospatial Simulation Model of Sustainable Mangrove Development Scenarios for the Years 2030 and 2050 in Marismas Nacionales, Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • María Alejandra Quintero-Morales

    (Facultad de Biología, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Culiacán Sinaloa 80007, Mexico)

  • Wenseslao Plata-Rocha

    (Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Culiacán Sinaloa 80007, Mexico)

  • Sergio Alberto Monjardín-Armenta

    (Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Culiacán Sinaloa 80007, Mexico)

  • Vicente Olimón-Andalón

    (Facultad de Biología, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Culiacán Sinaloa 80007, Mexico)

  • Edith Hilario Torres-Montoya

    (Facultad de Biología, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Culiacán Sinaloa 80007, Mexico)

Abstract

Anthropogenic activities influence the loss of mangroves, increase natural phenomena such as hurricanes, tropical storms, and El Niño, and consequently increase concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO 2 , promoting climate change. There are strategies to reduce emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the General Law on Climate Change to counteract these conditions. Therefore, this research aims to generate an integral simulation model of sustainable mangrove development scenarios for 2030 and 2050 through mitigation strategies, using geospatial techniques, multi-criteria evaluation, and generating a future surface demand model. The Marismas Nacionales study area is a mangrove ecosystem and an important carbon sink. The simulation model determined that the mangrove area in 2030 will be 77,555 hectares, with an estimated absorption of 358.95 Gg CO 2 e (equivalent). By 2050 there will be 86,476 ha, absorbing 400.24 Gg CO 2 e. This increase will be in disturbed mangrove areas and other wetlands. The sustainable simulation model and the surface demand model can be applied in any study area to increase, protect, and conserve mangroves to benefit the social, economic, and environmental sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • María Alejandra Quintero-Morales & Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Sergio Alberto Monjardín-Armenta & Vicente Olimón-Andalón & Edith Hilario Torres-Montoya, 2021. "Geospatial Simulation Model of Sustainable Mangrove Development Scenarios for the Years 2030 and 2050 in Marismas Nacionales, Mexico," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:17:p:9551-:d:621477
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta & Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Carlos Eduardo Pacheco-Angulo & Cuauhtémoc Franco-Ochoa & Jesus Gabriel Rangel-Peraza, 2020. "Geospatial Simulation Model of Deforestation and Reforestation Using Multicriteria Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta & Carlos Eduardo Pacheco-Angulo & Jesus Gabriel Rangel-Peraza & Cuauhtemoc Franco-Ochoa & Zuriel Dathan Mora-Felix, 2021. "Proximate and Underlying Deforestation Causes in a Tropical Basin through Specialized Consultation and Spatial Logistic Regression Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Overmars, Koen P. & Verburg, Peter H., 2006. "Multilevel modelling of land use from field to village level in the Philippines," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 435-456, September.
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