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Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Qi

    (Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun 130102, China)

  • Guangxin Zhang

    (Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun 130102, China)

  • Yi Jun Xu

    (School of Renewable Natural Resources, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Zhikun Xia

    (Institute of Hydraulic and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, No.74, Xuefu Road, Harbin 150080, China)

  • Ming Wang

    (Institute of Meteorology in Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150080, China)

Abstract

Global water resources are affected by climate change as never before. However, it is still unclear how water resources in high latitudes respond to climate change. In this study, the water resource data for 2021–2050 in the Naoli River Basin, a high-latitude basin in China, are calculated by using the SWAT-Modflow Model and future climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show a decreasing trend. When compared to the present, future streamflow is predicted to decrease by 2.73 × 10 8 m 3 in 2021–2035 and by 1.51 × 10 8 m 3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 8.16 × 10 8 m 3 in 2021–2035 and by 0.56 × 10 8 m 3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, groundwater recharge is expected to decrease by −1.79 × 10 8 m 3 in 2021–2035 and −0.75 × 10 8 m 3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and by −0.62 × 10 8 m 3 in 2021–2035 and −0.12 × 10 8 m 3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. The worst impact of climate change on water resources in the basin could be frequent occurrences of extremely wet and dry conditions. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the largest annual streamflow is predicted to be almost 14 times that of the smallest one, while it is 18 times for the groundwater recharge. Meanwhile, in the RCP 8.5 scenario, inter-annual fluctuations are expected to be more severe. The difference is 17 times between the largest annual streamflow and the lowest annual one. Moreover, the value is 19 times between the largest and lowest groundwater recharge. This indicates a significant increase in conflict between water use and supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Qi & Guangxin Zhang & Yi Jun Xu & Zhikun Xia & Ming Wang, 2019. "Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:20:p:5619-:d:275768
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peng Qi & Y. Jun Xu & Guodong Wang, 2020. "Quantifying the Individual Contributions of Climate Change, Dam Construction, and Land Use/Land Cover Change to Hydrological Drought in a Marshy River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-16, May.

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