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Quantifying the Climate Impact of the US Policy Choices Using an Economic and Earth System Model

Author

Listed:
  • Shili Yang

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Business School, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Changxin Liu

    (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)

  • Wenjie Dong

    (Atmospheric Science School, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510000, China
    Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China)

  • Jieming Chou

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Di Tian

    (State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Hangzhou 310012, China)

  • Ting Wei

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Yuan Tian

    (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)

Abstract

Climate policy plays an important role in keeping global temperature rises below the target of 1.5–2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and technological innovations are key to determining the effectiveness of climate policy. In this study, we investigated the climate impact of the USA’s policy choices using the enforced multi-factor regional climate and economy system (EMRICES,) and the Earth system model from Beijing Normal University (BNU-ESM). Three emission scenarios were designed based on the assumption of whether or not the US follows its proposed nationally determined contribution (NDC) and makes use of technological innovations. The results showed that if the US does not implement the NDC and had no technological progress, there would be an extra 176.7 Gt of cumulative carbon emissions by the end of the 21st century compared to that of all the countries that follow their NDC. The additional emissions would lead to an increase of 62 ppm in CO 2 concentration and a 0.4 °C increase in global warming by 2100. It would also lead to a 2% loss for the US and Chinese economies, compared to the NDC scenario. The Earth system model results also show that even if all the countries follow the DNC, it would be difficult to keep the temperature from increasing less than 1.5 °C. This study implies that the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and their refusal to adopt technological progress is not conducive to achieving the 1.5 °C goal, and more stringent emission reduction targets or technology innovations would be required for the world to control global warming to a level below 1.5 °C.

Suggested Citation

  • Shili Yang & Changxin Liu & Wenjie Dong & Jieming Chou & Di Tian & Ting Wei & Yuan Tian, 2018. "Quantifying the Climate Impact of the US Policy Choices Using an Economic and Earth System Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-11, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:6:p:1884-:d:150734
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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