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Mathematical Modeling and Parameter Estimation of Lane-Changing Vehicle Behavior Decisions

Author

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  • Jianghui Wen

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Yebei Xu

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Min Dai

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Nengchao Lyu

    (Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

Abstract

Lane changing is a crucial scenario in traffic environments, and accurately recognizing and predicting lane-changing behavior is essential for ensuring the safety of both autonomous vehicles and drivers. Through considering the multi-vehicle information interaction characteristics in lane-changing behavior for vehicles and the impact of driver experience needs on lane-changing decisions, this paper proposes a lane-changing model for vehicles to achieve safe and comfortable driving. Firstly, a lane-changing intention recognition model incorporating interaction effects was established to obtain the initial lane-changing intention probability of the vehicles. Secondly, by accounting for individual driving styles, a lane-changing behavior decision model was constructed based on a Gaussian mixture hidden Markov model (GMM-HMM) along with a parameter estimation method. The initial lane-changing intention probability serves as the input for the decision model, and the final lane-changing decision is made by comparing the probabilities of lane-changing and non-lane-changing scenarios. Finally, the model was validated using real-world data from the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) dataset, with empirical results demonstrating its high accuracy in recognizing and predicting lane-changing behavior. This study provides a robust framework for enhancing lane-changing decision making in complex traffic environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianghui Wen & Yebei Xu & Min Dai & Nengchao Lyu, 2025. "Mathematical Modeling and Parameter Estimation of Lane-Changing Vehicle Behavior Decisions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:13:y:2025:i:6:p:1014-:d:1616735
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Deng, Jian-Hua & Feng, Huan-Huan, 2019. "A multilane cellular automaton multi-attribute lane-changing decision model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 529(C).
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