IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i16p3008-d893461.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Propagation and Supply Chain Health Control Based on the SIR Epidemic Model

Author

Listed:
  • Di Liang

    (School of Mechanical and Engineering, Shenyang University, Shenyang 110044, China)

  • Ran Bhamra

    (School of Business and Management Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK)

  • Zhongyi Liu

    (School of Mechanical and Engineering, Shenyang University, Shenyang 110044, China)

  • Yucheng Pan

    (Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co., Ltd., Yantai 264006, China)

Abstract

Risk propagation is occurring as an exceptional challenge to supply chain management. Identifying which supplier has the greater possibility of interruptions is pivotal for managing the occurrence of these risks, which have a significant impact on the supply chain. Identifying and predicting how these risks propagate and understanding how these risks dynamically diffuse if control strategies are installed can help to better manage supply chain risks. Drawing on the complex systems and epidemiological literature, we research the impact of the global supply network structure on risk propagation and supply network health. The SIR model is used to dynamically identify and predict the risk status of the supply chain risk at different times. The results show that there is a significant relationship between network structure and risk propagation and supply network health. We demonstrate the importance of supply network visibility and of the extraction of the information of node firms. We build up an R package for geometric graphs and epidemics. This paper applies the R package to model the supply chain risk for an automotive manufacturing company. The R package provides a firm to construct the complicated interactions among suppliers and display how these interactions impact on risks. Theoretically, our study adapts a computational approach to contribute to the understanding of risk management and supply networks. Managerially, our study demonstrates how the supply chain network analysis approach can benefit the managers by developing a more holistic framework of system-wide risk propagation. This provides guidance for network governance policies, which will lead to healthier supply chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Liang & Ran Bhamra & Zhongyi Liu & Yucheng Pan, 2022. "Risk Propagation and Supply Chain Health Control Based on the SIR Epidemic Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-16, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:16:p:3008-:d:893461
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/16/3008/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/16/3008/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivanov, Dmitry & Sokolov, Boris, 2013. "Control and system-theoretic identification of the supply chain dynamics domain for planning, analysis and adaptation of performance under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 313-323.
    2. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    3. Shamsi G., N. & Ali Torabi, S. & Shakouri G., H., 2018. "An option contract for vaccine procurement using the SIR epidemic model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 1122-1140.
    4. Miguel Reyna-Castillo & Alejandro Santiago & Salvador Ibarra Martínez & José Antonio Castán Rocha, 2022. "Social Sustainability and Resilience in Supply Chains of Latin America on COVID-19 Times: Classification Using Evolutionary Fuzzy Knowledge," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Garvey, Myles D. & Carnovale, Steven & Yeniyurt, Sengun, 2015. "An analytical framework for supply network risk propagation: A Bayesian network approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(2), pages 618-627.
    6. Hasan, Samiul & Ukkusuri, Satish V., 2011. "A threshold model of social contagion process for evacuation decision making," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1590-1605.
    7. Alexandre Dolgui & Dmitry Ivanov & Maxim Rozhkov, 2020. "Does the ripple effect influence the bullwhip effect? An integrated analysis of structural and operational dynamics in the supply chain," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(5), pages 1285-1301, March.
    8. William Ho & Tian Zheng & Hakan Yildiz & Srinivas Talluri, 2015. "Supply chain risk management: a literature review," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(16), pages 5031-5069, August.
    9. Nian, Fuzhong & Ren, Song & Dang, Zhongkai, 2017. "The propagation-weighted priority immunization strategy based on propagation tree," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 72-78.
    10. Dmitry Ivanov, 2018. "Supply Chain Resilience: Modelling, Management, and Control," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Structural Dynamics and Resilience in Supply Chain Risk Management, chapter 0, pages 45-89, Springer.
    11. Sarker, Ruhul & Essam, Daryl, 2017. "A quantitative model for disruption mitigation in a supply chainAuthor-Name: Paul, Sanjoy Kumar," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(3), pages 881-895.
    12. Du, Jiuyu & Li, Feiqiang & Li, Jianqiu & Wu, Xiaogang & Song, Ziyou & Zou, Yunfei & Ouyang, Minggao, 2019. "Evaluating the technological evolution of battery electric buses: China as a case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 309-319.
    13. Dmitry Ivanov, 2018. "Supply Chain Management and Structural Dynamics Control," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Structural Dynamics and Resilience in Supply Chain Risk Management, chapter 0, pages 1-18, Springer.
    14. Qazi, Abroon & Dickson, Alex & Quigley, John & Gaudenzi, Barbara, 2018. "Supply chain risk network management: A Bayesian belief network and expected utility based approach for managing supply chain risks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 24-42.
    15. Qazi, Abroon & Quigley, John & Dickson, Alex & Ekici, Şule Önsel, 2017. "Exploring dependency based probabilistic supply chain risk measures for prioritising interdependent risks and strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 189-204.
    16. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    17. Dmitry Ivanov, 2018. "Structural Dynamics and Resilience in Supply Chain Risk Management," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-3-319-69305-7, September.
    18. Sinha, Priyank & Kumar, Sameer & Prakash, Surya, 2020. "Measuring and mitigating the effects of cost disturbance propagation in multi-echelon apparel supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 148-160.
    19. Stephen Eubank & Hasan Guclu & V. S. Anil Kumar & Madhav V. Marathe & Aravind Srinivasan & Zoltán Toroczkai & Nan Wang, 2004. "Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 429(6988), pages 180-184, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jianhua Chen & Ting Yin, 2023. "Transmission Mechanism of Post-COVID-19 Emergency Supply Chain Based on Complex Network: An Improved SIR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dmitry Ivanov, 2022. "Viable supply chain model: integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives—lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 1411-1431, December.
    2. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Ivanov, Dmitry & Dolgui, Alexandre, 2019. "Review of quantitative methods for supply chain resilience analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 285-307.
    3. El Baz, Jamal & Ruel, Salomée, 2021. "Can supply chain risk management practices mitigate the disruption impacts on supply chains’ resilience and robustness? Evidence from an empirical survey in a COVID-19 outbreak era," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    4. Seyedmohsen Hosseini & Dmitry Ivanov, 2022. "A new resilience measure for supply networks with the ripple effect considerations: a Bayesian network approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 581-607, December.
    5. Ivanov, Dmitry & Dolgui, Alexandre, 2021. "OR-methods for coping with the ripple effect in supply chains during COVID-19 pandemic: Managerial insights and research implications," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    6. Abroon Qazi & Mecit Can Emre Simsekler & Steven Formaneck, 2023. "Supply chain risk network value at risk assessment using Bayesian belief networks and Monte Carlo simulation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(1), pages 241-272, March.
    7. Qazi, Abroon & Dickson, Alex & Quigley, John & Gaudenzi, Barbara, 2018. "Supply chain risk network management: A Bayesian belief network and expected utility based approach for managing supply chain risks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 24-42.
    8. Rozhkov, Maxim & Ivanov, Dmitry & Blackhurst, Jennifer & Nair, Anand, 2022. "Adapting supply chain operations in anticipation of and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Nishat Alam Choudhary & Shalabh Singh & Tobias Schoenherr & M. Ramkumar, 2023. "Risk assessment in supply chains: a state-of-the-art review of methodologies and their applications," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(2), pages 565-607, March.
    10. Garvey, Myles D. & Carnovale, Steven, 2020. "The rippled newsvendor: A new inventory framework for modeling supply chain risk severity in the presence of risk propagation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    11. Vimal K.E.K & Simon Peter Nadeem & Mahadharsan Ravichandran & Manavalan Ethirajan & Jayakrishna Kandasamy, 2022. "Resilience strategies to recover from the cascading ripple effect in a copper supply chain through project management," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 440-460, June.
    12. Dmitry Ivanov & Boris Sokolov, 2019. "Simultaneous structural–operational control of supply chain dynamics and resilience," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1191-1210, December.
    13. Niels Bugert & Rainer Lasch, 2023. "Analyzing upstream and downstream risk propagation in supply networks by combining Agent-based Modeling and Bayesian networks," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(5), pages 859-889, July.
    14. Nguyen, Son & Shu-Ling Chen, Peggy & Du, Yuquan, 2022. "Risk assessment of maritime container shipping blockchain-integrated systems: An analysis of multi-event scenarios," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    15. Kraude, Richard & Narayanan, Sriram & Talluri, Srinivas, 2022. "Evaluating the performance of supply chain risk mitigation strategies using network data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1168-1182.
    16. Ivanov, Dmitry, 2020. "Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    17. Brusset, Xavier & Ivanov, Dmitry & Jebali, Aida & La Torre, Davide & Repetto, Marco, 2023. "A dynamic approach to supply chain reconfiguration and ripple effect analysis in an epidemic," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    18. Dixit, Vijaya & Verma, Priyanka & Tiwari, Manoj Kumar, 2020. "Assessment of pre and post-disaster supply chain resilience based on network structural parameters with CVaR as a risk measure," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    19. Scarpin, Marcia Regina Santiago & Scarpin, Jorge Eduardo & Krespi Musial, Nayane Thais & Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro, 2022. "The implications of COVID-19: Bullwhip and ripple effects in global supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    20. Paul, Sanjoy Kumar & Chowdhury, Priyabrata & Moktadir, Md. Abdul & Lau, Kwok Hung, 2021. "Supply chain recovery challenges in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 316-329.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:16:p:3008-:d:893461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.