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Circular Strategic Options for Ethanol Supply Chain Resilience Under Uncertainties Using a Composition of Probabilities Group Decision Model

Author

Listed:
  • Edson da Silva Santos

    (Department of Management Engineering, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57309-005, Brazil)

  • Wesley Douglas Oliveira Silva

    (Department of Management Engineering, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57309-005, Brazil)

  • Marcele Elisa Fontana

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technology and Geosciences Center, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife 50740-550, Brazil)

  • Pedro Carmona Marques

    (RCM2+, Faculty of Engineering, Lusófona University, Campo Grande 376, 1749-024 Lisbon, Portugal
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Polytechnic Institute of Lisbon, R. Conselheiro Emídio Navarro 1, 1959-007 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Hemmylly Cawanne Pedro

    (Department of Management Engineering, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57309-005, Brazil)

  • Renata de Oliveira Mota

    (Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB), João Pessoa 58051-900, Brazil)

  • Vilmar Nepomuceno

    (Department of Software Engineering, Federal Institute of Pernambuco (IFPE), Recife 50740-545, Brazil)

Abstract

Background : Brazil’s bioethanol supply chain is vital for global energy security and climate action but remains vulnerable to climate disruptions, market volatility, and conflicting stakeholder interests. While resilience strategies exist, they often overlook the potential of circular economy (CE) principles. Methods : This study proposes an integrated decision-support framework that combines Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA), the Composition of Probabilistic Preferences (CPP), and the Rank-Order Centroid (ROC) method to prioritize CE strategies under uncertainty. The approach incorporates stakeholder input and probabilistic modeling to evaluate 20 alternatives across 10 criteria. Results : The analysis identified climate risk modeling, biogas utilization, and blockchain-enabled traceability as the most effective strategies for improving supply chain resilience. The model demonstrated strong robustness, maintaining 95% consistency in rankings under varied decision-making scenarios. Conclusions : This research presents a novel, structured method for supporting complex decisions in uncertain environments. By integrating CE principles and group decision-making tools, the study offers valuable guidance for policymakers and industry leaders seeking to build more resilient and sustainable bioethanol supply chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Edson da Silva Santos & Wesley Douglas Oliveira Silva & Marcele Elisa Fontana & Pedro Carmona Marques & Hemmylly Cawanne Pedro & Renata de Oliveira Mota & Vilmar Nepomuceno, 2025. "Circular Strategic Options for Ethanol Supply Chain Resilience Under Uncertainties Using a Composition of Probabilities Group Decision Model," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-26, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlogis:v:9:y:2025:i:2:p:71-:d:1667090
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