Revealing Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Service Flows Through the Meta-Coupling Framework: Evidence from Henan Province and the Surrounding Regions in China

Research on ecosystem carbon sequestration services and ecological compensation is crucial for advancing carbon neutrality. As a public good, ecosystem carbon sequestration services inherently lead to externalities. Therefore, it is essential to consider externalities in the flow of sequestration services. However, few studies have examined intra- and inter-regional ecosystem carbon sequestration flows, making regional ecosystem carbon sequestration flows less comprehensive. Against this background, the research objectives of this paper are as follows. The flow of carbon sequestration services between Henan Province and out-of-province regions is studied. In addition, this study clarifies the beneficiary and supply areas of carbon sink services in Henan Province and the neighboring regions at the prefecture-level city scale to obtain a more systematic, comprehensive, and actual flow of carbon sequestration services for scientific and effective eco-compensation and to promote regional synergistic emission reductions. The research methodologies used in this paper are as follows. First, this study adopts a meta-coupling framework, designating Henan Province as the focal system, the Central Urban Agglomeration as the adjacent system, and eight surrounding provinces as remote systems. Regional carbon sequestration was assessed using net primary productivity (NEP), while carbon emissions were evaluated based on per capita carbon emissions and population density. A carbon balance analysis integrated carbon sequestration and emissions. Hotspot analysis identified areas of carbon sequestration service supply and associated benefits. Ecological radiation force formulas were used to quantify service flows, and compensation values were estimated considering the government’s payment capacity and willingness. A three-dimensional evaluation system—incorporating technology, talent, and fiscal capacity—was developed to propose a diversified ecological compensation scheme by comparing supply and beneficiary areas. By modeling the ecosystem carbon sequestration service flow, the main results of this paper are as follows: (1) Within Henan Province, Luoyang and Nanyang provided 521,300 tons and 515,600 tons of carbon sinks to eight cities (e.g., Jiaozuo, Zhengzhou, and Kaifeng), warranting an ecological compensation of CNY 262.817 million and CNY 263.259 million, respectively. (2) Henan exported 3.0739 million tons of carbon sinks to external provinces, corresponding to a compensation value of CNY 1756.079 million. Conversely, regions such as Changzhi, Xiangyang, and Jinzhong contributed 657,200 tons of carbon sinks to Henan, requiring a compensation of CNY 189.921 million. (3) Henan thus achieved a net ecological compensation of CNY 1566.158 million through carbon sink flows. (4) In addition to monetary compensation, beneficiary areas may also contribute through technology transfer, financial investment, and talent support. The findings support the following conclusions: (1) it is necessary to consider the externalities of ecosystem services, and (2) the meta-coupling framework enables a comprehensive assessment of carbon sequestration service flows, providing actionable insights for improving ecosystem governance in Henan Province and comparable regions.