Effects of Urbanization-Induced Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Anhui Province, China

Urbanization has profoundly reshaped ecosystem services (ESs), yet how diverse urbanization drivers interact with land use and land cover (LULC) changes to influence ESs remains insufficiently studied. To address these gaps, this study offers a comprehensive assessment of urbanization induced ESs transformations across Anhui Province, China. We selected five key regulating and provisioning services closely linked to LULC dynamics, revealing that southern mountainous areas consistently supported higher ES levels, whereas central and northern urbanizing zones experienced severe ES degradation. By using random forest ensemble learning and Partial Least Square Path Modeling, we identified population density, urban construction proportion, and agricultural intensification as key urbanization drivers shaped LULC changes and indirectly influenced ES distributions. Notably, we also found that urbanization drivers and land use transitions did not act independently but interacted to jointly affect ES dynamics. These findings underscored the critical role of land use changes in mediating the impacts of urbanization on ESs and highlighted the importance of integrating land use management with urban planning to support sustainable regional development.