IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i4p879-d1636101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Cultivated Land Change and Its Driving Forces in Jiangsu Province, China

Author

Listed:
  • Xufeng Cao

    (College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Jiqin Han

    (College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Chonggang Liu

    (Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China)

Abstract

Since 2000, the Yangtze River Delta region has undergone a period of rapid urbanization in China. A large area of cultivated land has been converted into construction land, which greatly affects food security. The decrease in cultivated land caused by urbanization is also very serious in Jiangsu Province, one of the main grain-producing areas in the Yangtze River Delta region. Based on the remote sensing data of Jiangsu Province in 2000, 2010 and 2020, this paper analyzes the land use changes occurring in 13 regional cities in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020 by using the transfer matrix. Spatial and temporal geographical weighted regression models were used to analyze the differences in the economic, social and policy impacts of land use change across the province. The results show that the cultivated land area is decreasing, and the closer to the urban center, the faster the decrease in cultivated land in Jiangsu Province. Cultivated land was mainly transferred out to construction land, waters and woodlands. The human factors affecting the change in cultivated land area in the province can be divided into a population growth factor, economic development factor, rural development factor and land policy factor. Among them, population growth and economic development had a negative effect on cultivated land protection, while improvements in the agricultural production level and cultivated land protection policy had a positive effect on cultivated land protection. According to the analysis of spatial-temporal heterogeneity of cultivated land area change, the growing urbanization rate had the greatest impact on the cultivated land area in Southern Jiangsu, and the impact of real estate development on cultivated land has been reduced in small cities. The conclusion of this paper has important policy implications for promoting cultivated land protection and ensuring food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Xufeng Cao & Jiqin Han & Chonggang Liu, 2025. "Analysis of Cultivated Land Change and Its Driving Forces in Jiangsu Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:4:p:879-:d:1636101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/4/879/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/4/879/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nij Tontisirin & Sutee Anantsuksomsri, 2021. "Economic Development Policies and Land Use Changes in Thailand: From the Eastern Seaboard to the Eastern Economic Corridor," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Haile Belay & Assefa M. Melesse & Getachew Tegegne, 2024. "Scenario-Based Land Use and Land Cover Change Detection and Prediction Using the Cellular Automata–Markov Model in the Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-34, March.
    3. Yiting Zuo & Jie Cheng & Meichen Fu, 2022. "Analysis of Land Use Change and the Role of Policy Dimensions in Ecologically Complex Areas: A Case Study in Chongqing," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-27, April.
    4. Jia Gao & Yaohui Zhu & Rongrong Zhao & Hongjun Sui, 2022. "The Use of Cultivated Land for Multiple Functions in Major Grain-Producing Areas in Northeast China: Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Driving Forces," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Jin, Gui & Chen, Kun & Wang, Pei & Guo, Baishu & Dong, Yin & Yang, Jun, 2019. "Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 36-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Baishu & Jin, Gui, 2025. "Beyond the land quantity: Rethinking the role of land quality in agriculture from the efficiency perspective," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Bhagawat Rimal & Sushila Rijal & Abhishek Tiwary, 2025. "Prediction of Urban Growth and Sustainability Challenges Based on LULC Change: Case Study of Two Himalayan Metropolitan Cities," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-26, August.
    3. Zhang, Hong & Jin, Gui & Zhang, Zhengyu, 2021. "Coupling system of carbon emission and social economy: A review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Li, Shicheng & Zhang, Heng & Zhou, Xuewu & Yu, Haibin & Li, Wangjun, 2020. "Enhancing protected areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    5. Yanru Zhao & Xiaomin Zhao & Xinyi Huang & Jiaxin Guo & Guohui Chen, 2022. "Identifying a Period of Spatial Land Use Conflicts and Their Driving Forces in the Pearl River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Song, Min & Yi, Luping & Hu, Can, 2023. "Building up a compensation-oriented transferable development right mechanism: A theoretical and empirical exploration in Hubei, China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    7. Jing Zhu & Shenghong Kang & Wenwu Zhao & Qiujie Li & Xinyuan Xie & Xiangping Hu, 2020. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Food–Energy–Water Nexus: Progress and Prospects," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Jingeng Huo & Zhenqin Shi & Wenbo Zhu & Hua Xue & Xin Chen, 2022. "A Multi-Scenario Simulation and Optimization of Land Use with a Markov–FLUS Coupling Model: A Case Study in Xiong’an New Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Zhang, Han & Zheng, Jinhui & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Zhao, Shikuan & Bouri, Elie, 2024. "How does urban land use efficiency improve resource and environment carrying capacity?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Saeed Sharafi & Zahra Marzban & Deirdre Dragovich, 2025. "Ecosystem Service Values and Wheat Agroecosystem Management Types in a Semi-Arid Region, Iran," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, April.
    11. Qingsheng Bi & Weiqiang Chen & Ling Li & Xiuli Wang & Enxiang Cai, 2022. "Agricultural Population Supported in Rural Areas under Traditional Planting Mode Based on Opportunity Cost Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-15, August.
    12. Jingwei Xiang & Xiaoqing Song & Jiangfeng Li, 2019. "Cropland Use Transitions and Their Driving Factors in Poverty-Stricken Counties of Western Hubei Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Li, Bingqing & Wang, Zhanqi & Chai, Ji & Zhang, Di, 2019. "Index system to assess implementation of strategic land use plans in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Aihui Ma & Yijia Gao & Wanmin Zhao, 2024. "Research on Territorial Spatial Development Non-Equilibrium and Temporal–Spatial Patterns from a Conjugate Perspective: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Enxiang Cai & Weiqiang Chen & Hejie Wei & Jiwei Li & Hua Wang & Yulong Guo & Xinwei Feng, 2020. "The coupling characteristics of population and residential land in rural areas of China and its implications for sustainable land use," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 646-656, July.
    16. Mariana Cernicova-Buca & Vasile Gherheș & Ciprian Obrad, 2023. "Residents’ Satisfaction with Green Spaces and Daily Life in Small Urban Settings: Romanian Perspectives," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Xiaoping Zhou & Duanshuai Shen & Xiaokun Gu, 2022. "Influences of Land Policy on Urban Ecological Corridors Governance: A Case Study from Shanghai," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-21, August.
    18. Sezer, Muruvvet Deniz & Kazancoglu, Yigit & Mangla, Sachin Kumar, 2024. "Analysing of the territorial competitiveness index in Izmir through dynamic model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Kuang, Bing & Lu, Xinhai & Zhou, Min & Chen, Danling, 2020. "Provincial cultivated land use efficiency in China: Empirical analysis based on the SBM-DEA model with carbon emissions considered," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Kun Chen & Yinrong Chen & Min Liu & Yi Chen, 2023. "Research on the Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Influence Path of High-Quality Economic Development from the Perspective of Urban Land Transfer," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:4:p:879-:d:1636101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.