From Policy to Practice: Assessing Carbon Storage in Fujian Province Using Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Models

Simulating and predicting carbon storage under different development scenarios is crucial for formulating effective carbon management strategies and achieving carbon neutrality goals. However, studies that focus on specific regions and incorporate local policy context require further investigation. Taking Fujian Province as a case study, this research developed four policy-driven scenarios—natural development, farmland protection, urban development, and ecological protection—based on local policy frameworks. Using the PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) and InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) models, the study simulated and predicted the carbon storage dynamics under each scenario. The results show that carbon storage declined from 1995 to 2020, mainly due to the conversion of forests and agricultural land into construction areas. The ecological protection scenario demonstrated the highest potential for carbon storage recovery, projecting an increase to 2.02 billion tons by 2030, driven by afforestation and conservation initiatives. Conversely, the urban development scenario posed the greatest risks, leading to substantial losses. Key conservation areas, including 12 priority districts, were identified in the western and northwestern regions, while coastal urban areas, comprising 31 vulnerable districts, face significant carbon storage losses. These findings emphasize the need for balanced land use policies that prioritize both urban development and ecological protection to achieve sustainable carbon management.