IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i8p1273-d1454944.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Harnessing Machine Learning Algorithms to Model the Association between Land Use/Land Cover Change and Heatwave Dynamics for Enhanced Environmental Management

Author

Listed:
  • Kumar Ashwini

    (Department of Civil Engineering Chaibasa Engineering College, Jhinkpani 833215, Jharkhand, India)

  • Briti Sundar Sil

    (Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Silchar 788010, Assam, India)

  • Abdulla Al Kafy

    (Department of Geography & the Environment, The University of Texas at Austin, 305 E 23rd St, Austin, TX 78712, USA)

  • Hamad Ahmed Altuwaijri

    (Department of Geography, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia)

  • Hrithik Nath

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, Bangladesh
    Department of Civil Engineering, University of Creative Technology Chittagong (UCTC), Chattogram 4212, Bangladesh)

  • Zullyadini A. Rahaman

    (Department of Geography & Environment, Faculty of Human Sciences, Sultan Idris Education University, Tanjung Malim 35900, Malaysia)

Abstract

As we navigate the fast-paced era of urban expansion, the integration of machine learning (ML) and remote sensing (RS) has become a cornerstone in environmental management. This research, focusing on Silchar City, a non-attainment city under the National Clean Air Program (NCAP), leverages these advanced technologies to understand the urban microclimate and its implications on the health, resilience, and sustainability of the built environment. The rise in land surface temperature (LST) and changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have been identified as key contributors to thermal dynamics, particularly focusing on the development of urban heat islands (UHIs). The Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) can assess the influence of UHIs, which is considered a parameter for ecological quality assessment. This research examines the interlinkages among urban expansion, LST, and thermal dynamics in Silchar City due to a substantial rise in air temperature, poor air quality, and particulate matter PM 2.5 . Using Landsat satellite imagery, LULC maps were derived for 2000, 2010, and 2020 by applying a supervised classification approach. LST was calculated by converting thermal band spectral radiance into brightness temperature. We utilized Cellular Automata (CA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to project potential scenarios up to the year 2040. Over the two-decade period from 2000 to 2020, we observed a 21% expansion in built-up areas, primarily at the expense of vegetation and agricultural lands. This land transformation contributed to increased LST, with over 10% of the area exceeding 25 °C in 2020 compared with just 1% in 2000. The CA model predicts built-up areas will grow by an additional 26% by 2040, causing LST to rise by 4 °C. The UTFVI analysis reveals declining thermal comfort, with the worst affected zone projected to expand by 7 km 2 . The increase in PM 2.5 and aerosol optical depth over the past two decades further indicates deteriorating air quality. This study underscores the potential of ML and RS in environmental management, providing valuable insights into urban expansion, thermal dynamics, and air quality that can guide policy formulation for sustainable urban planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumar Ashwini & Briti Sundar Sil & Abdulla Al Kafy & Hamad Ahmed Altuwaijri & Hrithik Nath & Zullyadini A. Rahaman, 2024. "Harnessing Machine Learning Algorithms to Model the Association between Land Use/Land Cover Change and Heatwave Dynamics for Enhanced Environmental Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-30, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:8:p:1273-:d:1454944
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/8/1273/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/8/1273/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kleerekoper, Laura & van Esch, Marjolein & Salcedo, Tadeo Baldiri, 2012. "How to make a city climate-proof, addressing the urban heat island effect," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 30-38.
    2. Abdul Munaf Mohamed Irfeey & Hing-Wah Chau & Mohamed Mahusoon Fathima Sumaiya & Cheuk Yin Wai & Nitin Muttil & Elmira Jamei, 2023. "Sustainable Mitigation Strategies for Urban Heat Island Effects in Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-26, July.
    3. Mansour, Shawky & Al-Belushi, Mohammed & Al-Awadhi, Talal, 2020. "Monitoring land use and land cover changes in the mountainous cities of Oman using GIS and CA-Markov modelling techniques," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Alireza Karimi & Pir Mohammad & Antonio García-Martínez & David Moreno-Rangel & Darya Gachkar & Sadaf Gachkar, 2023. "New developments and future challenges in reducing and controlling heat island effect in urban areas," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 10485-10531, October.
    5. Sandeep Thakur & Debapriya Maity & Ismail Mondal & Ganesh Basumatary & Phani Bhushan Ghosh & Papita Das & Tarun Kumar De, 2021. "Assessment of changes in land use, land cover, and land surface temperature in the mangrove forest of Sundarbans, northeast coast of India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1917-1943, February.
    6. Kumar Ashwini & Briti Sundar Sil, 2022. "Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Land Surface Temperature over Cachar Region, Northeast India—A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-31, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsung-Ming Tsao & Jing-Shiang Hwang & Sung-Tsun Lin & Charlene Wu & Ming-Jer Tsai & Ta-Chen Su, 2022. "Forest Bathing Is Better than Walking in Urban Park: Comparison of Cardiac and Vascular Function between Urban and Forest Parks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Bohong Zheng & Rui Guo & Komi Bernard Bedra & Yanfen Xiang, 2022. "Quantitative Evaluation of Urban Style at Street Level: A Case Study of Hengyang County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-28, March.
    3. Susca, T. & Zanghirella, F. & Colasuonno, L. & Del Fatto, V., 2022. "Effect of green wall installation on urban heat island and building energy use: A climate-informed systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Yan Zhou & Tao Chen & Jingjing Wang & Xiaolan Xu, 2023. "Analyzing the Factors Driving the Changes of Ecosystem Service Value in the Liangzi Lake Basin—A GeoDetector-Based Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Vassiliades, C. & Savvides, A. & Buonomano, A., 2022. "Building integration of active solar energy systems for façades renovation in the urban fabric: Effects on the thermal comfort in outdoor public spaces in Naples and Thessaloniki," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 30-47.
    6. Qing Liu & Dongdong Yang & Lei Cao & Bruce Anderson, 2022. "Assessment and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Tropics: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Zhang, Zuo & Li, Jiaming, 2022. "Spatial suitability and multi-scenarios for land use: Simulation and policy insights from the production-living-ecological perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Abdulaziz I. Almulhim & Simon Elias Bibri & Ayyoob Sharifi & Shakil Ahmad & Khalid Mohammed Almatar, 2022. "Emerging Trends and Knowledge Structures of Urbanization and Environmental Sustainability: A Regional Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-23, October.
    9. Yangyang Yuan & Yuchen Yang & Ruijun Wang & Yuning Cheng, 2022. "Predicting Rural Ecological Space Boundaries in the Urban Fringe Area Based on Bayesian Network: A Case Study in Nanjing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-24, October.
    10. Milad Asadi & Amir Oshnooei-Nooshabadi & Samira-Sadat Saleh & Fattaneh Habibnezhad & Sonia Sarafraz-Asbagh & John Lodewijk Van Genderen, 2022. "Urban Sprawl Simulation Mapping of Urmia (Iran) by Comparison of Cellular Automata–Markov Chain and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    11. Maira Masood & Chunguang He & Shoukat Ali Shah & Syed Aziz Ur Rehman, 2024. "Land Use Change Impacts over the Indus Delta: A Case Study of Sindh Province, Pakistan," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-25, July.
    12. Ying Zheng & Qiyao Han & Greg Keeffe, 2024. "An Evaluation of Different Landscape Design Scenarios to Improve Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Shenzhen," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, January.
    13. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    14. Chang You & Hongjiao Qu & Shidong Zhang & Luo Guo, 2024. "Assessment of Uncertainties in Ecological Risk Based on the Prediction of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Evolution," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Tianlin Zhai & Jing Wang & Ying Fang & Jingjing Liu & Longyang Huang & Kun Chen & Chenchen Zhao, 2021. "Identification and Prediction of Wetland Ecological Risk in Key Cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt: From the Perspective of Land Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, January.
    16. Wang, Shunke & Chang, Jingjing & Xue, Jie & Sun, Huaiwei & Zeng, Fanjiang & Liu, Lei & Liu, Xin & Li, Xinxin, 2024. "Coupling behavioral economics and water management policies for agricultural land-use planning in basin irrigation districts: Agent-based socio-hydrological modeling and application," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    17. Ehsan Daneshyar, 2024. "Residential Rooftop Urban Agriculture: Architectural Design Recommendations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-34, February.
    18. Yunzhi Zhang & Tongyan Zheng & Chen Yu & Jing Ren & Xuegang Gong & Hao Wang & Yihao Duan, 2023. "Multi-Perspective Analysis of Land Changes in the Transitional Zone between the Mu Us Desert and the Loess Plateau in China from 2000 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, May.
    19. Schneider, Philipp & Walz, Ariane & Albert, Christian & Lipp, Torsten, 2021. "Ecosystem-based adaptation in cities: Use of formal and informal planning instruments," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    20. Juan Manuel Núñez & Andrea Santamaría & Leonardo Avila & D. A. Perez-De La Mora, 2024. "Using Local Entropy Mapping as an Approach to Quantify Surface Temperature Changes Induced by Urban Parks in Mexico City," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-16, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:8:p:1273-:d:1454944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.