Spatial Optimization of Land Use Allocation Based on the Trade-off of Carbon Mitigation and Economic Benefits: A Study in Tianshan North Slope Urban Agglomeration

The rational allocation of land use space is crucial to carbon emissions reductions and economic development. However, previous studies have either examined inter-objective trade-offs or intra-objective trade-offs within a single objective and lacked multilevel and comprehensive studies. Therefore, this paper integrates inter- and intra-objective carbon mitigation and economic efficiency trade-offs to comprehensively study the interaction between land pattern demand and space due to policies. The research methods were mainly multi-objective planning, a gray model, and patch-generating land use simulation model, and the study area was the less-developed urban agglomeration—the Tianshan north slope urban agglomeration. The results of the study show that the total change area of the study area from 2000 to 2020 was 5767.94 km 2 , the grassland area was transferred out the most, 3582.59 km 2 , accounting for 62.11%, and the cultivated land area was transferred in the most, 3741.01 km 2 . Compared with 2020, the simulated land use pattern obtained for 2030 has significantly changed. In addition, the total economic benefits and total carbon emissions under the economic and low-carbon objectives changed in the opposite direction. The four landscape patterns under the three scenarios of economic and low-carbon objectives changed in the same direction, and the degree of landscape fragmentation, agglomeration, and regularity under the low-carbon objective was better than that under the economic objective. The study results are essential references for future land resource management, carbon mitigation, and sustainable development of urban agglomerations.