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Towards the Use of Land Use Legacies in Landslide Modeling: Current Challenges and Future Perspectives in an Austrian Case Study

Author

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  • Raphael Knevels

    (Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, 07743 Jena, Germany)

  • Alexander Brenning

    (Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, 07743 Jena, Germany)

  • Simone Gingrich

    (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1070 Vienna, Austria)

  • Gerhard Heiss

    (Center for Low-Emission Transport, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, 1210 Vienna, Austria)

  • Theresia Lechner

    (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1070 Vienna, Austria)

  • Philip Leopold

    (Center for Low-Emission Transport, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, 1210 Vienna, Austria)

  • Christoph Plutzar

    (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1070 Vienna, Austria
    Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation Ecology and Landscape Ecology, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna, Austria)

  • Herwig Proske

    (Remote Sensing and Geoinformation Department, JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Helene Petschko

    (Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, 07743 Jena, Germany)

Abstract

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes may alter the risk of landslide occurrence. While LULC has often been considered as a static factor representing present-day LULC, historical LULC dynamics have recently begun to attract more attention. The study objective was to assess the effect of LULC legacies of nearly 200 years on landslide susceptibility models in two Austrian municipalities (Waidhofen an der Ybbs and Paldau). We mapped three cuts of LULC patterns from historical cartographic documents in addition to remote-sensing products. Agricultural archival sources were explored to provide also a predictor on cumulative biomass extraction as an indicator of historical land use intensity. We use historical landslide inventories derived from high-resolution digital terrain models (HRDTM) generated using airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), which are reported to have a biased landslide distribution on present-day forested areas and agricultural land. We asked (i) if long-term LULC legacies are important and reliable predictors and (ii) if possible inventory biases may be mitigated by LULC legacies. For the assessment of the LULC legacy effect on landslide occurrences, we used generalized additive models (GAM) within a suitable modeling framework considering various settings of LULC as predictor, and evaluated the effect with well-established diagnostic tools. For both municipalities, we identified a high density of landslides on present-day forested areas, confirming the reported drawbacks. With the use of LULC legacy as an additional predictor, it was not only possible to account for this bias, but also to improve model performances.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Knevels & Alexander Brenning & Simone Gingrich & Gerhard Heiss & Theresia Lechner & Philip Leopold & Christoph Plutzar & Herwig Proske & Helene Petschko, 2021. "Towards the Use of Land Use Legacies in Landslide Modeling: Current Challenges and Future Perspectives in an Austrian Case Study," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-29, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:9:p:954-:d:631627
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mayer, Andreas & Haas, Willi & Wiedenhofer, Dominik, 2017. "How Countries' Resource Use History Matters for Human Well-being – An Investigation of Global Patterns in Cumulative Material Flows from 1950 to 2010," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Hothorn, Torsten & Hornik, Kurt & van de Wiel, Mark A. & Zeileis, Achim, 2006. "A Lego System for Conditional Inference," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 60, pages 257-263, August.
    4. Erb, Karl-Heinz & Haberl, Helmut & Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck & Kuemmerle, Tobias & Lindner, Marcus & Müller, Daniel & Verburg, Peter H & Reenberg, Anette, 2013. "A conceptual framework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(5), pages 464-470.
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