IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v18y2025i8p431-d1716153.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Macro Factors on NPLs in the Banking Industry of Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Almas Kalimoldayev

    (Higher School of Economics and Business, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050051, Kazakhstan
    JSC “The Fund of Problem Loans”, Almaty 050051, Kazakhstan)

  • Yelena Popova

    (Transport and Telecommunication Institute, Faculty of Management and Logistics, LV-1019 Riga, Latvia)

  • Olegs Cernisevs

    (SIA StarBridge, LV-1050 Riga, Latvia)

  • Sergejs Popovs

    (Institute of Life Sciences and Technologies, Daugavpils University, LV-5401 Daugavpils, Latvia)

Abstract

The importance of non-performing loans (NPLs) for the stability of financial sectors is difficult to overestimate. The NPL level depends on numerous factors; this study’s goal is to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on NPLs with the mediation effect of foreign, saving and social factors in Kazakhstan’s banking sector. To determine the affecting factors, the authors performed a systematic literature review. To determine the dependencies between constructs, the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) method was used. Macroeconomic factors’ direct effect on non-performing loans (NPLs) was examined; a significant negative dependence was determined. The mediation effect of foreign, saving, and social factors was investigated. Foreign factors have a mediation effect, strengthening the dependence between macro factors and NPLs. Nevertheless, they do not have a mediating effect; moreover, they balance and make the effect of macro factors on NPLs statistically insignificant. These findings allow policy-makers to stabilize the situation on NPLs in the financial markets of developing countries like Kazakhstan by directly influencing not only the financial sector but also other sectors of the national economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Almas Kalimoldayev & Yelena Popova & Olegs Cernisevs & Sergejs Popovs, 2025. "Impact of Macro Factors on NPLs in the Banking Industry of Kazakhstan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:18:y:2025:i:8:p:431-:d:1716153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/18/8/431/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/18/8/431/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salvador Climent-Serrano, 2019. "Effects of economic variables on NPLs depending on the economic cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 325-340, January.
    2. Schlägel, Christopher & Sarstedt, Marko, 2016. "Assessing the measurement invariance of the four-dimensional cultural intelligence scale across countries: A composite model approach," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 633-649.
    3. Svetozar Tanasković & Maja Jandrić, 2015. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(1), pages 47-62.
    4. Yelena Popova & Sergejs Popovs, 2022. "Impact of Smart Economy on Smart Areas and Mediation Effect of National Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Amer Mohamad & Hatice Jenkins, 2021. "Corruption and banks’ non-performing loans: empirical evidence from MENA countries," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 308-321, September.
    6. Faaza Fakhrunnas & Rindang Nuri Isnaini Nugrohowati & Razali Haron & Mohammad Bekti Hendrie Anto, 2022. "The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the Indonesian Banking Industry: An Asymmetric Approach Before and During the Pandemic Crisis," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chafic Saliba & Panteha Farmanesh & Seyed Alireza Athari, 2023. "Does country risk impact the banking sectors’ non-performing loans? Evidence from BRICS emerging economies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    2. Albulena Shala & Valentin Toçi & Arben Mustafa, 2022. "Macroeconomic, Structural, and Bank-specific Determinants of Non-performing Loans in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(5), pages 411-429, May.
    3. Abdelmoety, Ziad Hassan & Aboul-Dahab, Sameh & Agag, Gomaa, 2022. "A cross cultural investigation of retailers commitment to CSR and customer citizenship behaviour: The role of ethical standard and value relevance," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Dybro Liengaard, Benjamin, 2024. "Measurement invariance testing in partial least squares structural equation modeling," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    5. Pallavi Chavan & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2016. "Bank lending and loan quality: the case of India," BIS Working Papers 595, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Petr Jakubik & Eyup Kadioglu, 2022. "Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, July.
    7. Pham, Dung & Jones, Paul & Dobson, Stephen & Liñán, Francisco & Viala, Céline, 2021. "Entrepreneurial implementation intention as a tool to moderate the stability of entrepreneurial goal intention: A sensemaking approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 97-105.
    8. Svenja Damberg & Yide Liu & Christian M. Ringle, 2024. "Does culture matter? Corporate reputation and sustainable satisfaction in the Chinese and German banking sector," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24, March.
    9. Aleksandra Ostrowska, 2023. "Makroekonomiczne determinanty jakości kredytów dla sektora niefinansowego w Polsce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(5), pages 541-556.
    10. Konstantinos J. Liapis, 2018. "Managing NPEs Under Financial Crisis Conditions: A Synthetic Quick Approach," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 688-713.
    11. Marzena Stor & Łukasz Haromszeki, 2025. "The mediating role of HRM outcomes in the relationship between employee development and company performance results: A study with a sustainable HRM perspective on Central European MNCs," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 2502-2518, April.
    12. Wenjie Xu & Hyejin Jung & Jangheon Han, 2022. "The Influences of Experiential Marketing Factors on Brand Trust, Brand Attachment, and Behavioral Intention: Focused on Integrated Resort Tourists," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Kharouf, Husni & Biscaia, Rui & Garcia-Perez, Alexeis & Hickman, Ellie, 2020. "Understanding online event experience: The importance of communication, engagement and interaction," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 735-746.
    14. Pallavi Chavan & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2019. "Bank lending and loan quality: an emerging economy perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-29, July.
    15. Jordan Kjosevski & Mihail Petkovski, 2021. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans: the case of baltic states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1009-1028, November.
    16. Jing A. Zhang & Tao Bai & Ryan W. Tang & Fiona Edgar & Steven Grover & Guoquan Chen, 2022. "The Development of Individual Ambidexterity Across Institutional Environments: Symmetric and Configurational Analyses," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 517-540, August.
    17. Jin-Kyu Kim & Jae-Jang Yang & Yong-Ki Lee, 2023. "How Do Self-Service Kiosks Improve COVID-19 Pandemic Resilience in the Restaurant Industry?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    18. Candida Ferreira, 2023. "The Influence of Bank Performance, Market Condition and Economic Growth on Non-Performing Loansa," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 77-98, June.
    19. Alyahya, Mansour & Agag, Gomaa & Aliedan, Meqbel & Abdelmoety, Ziad H., 2023. "A cross-cultural investigation of the relationship between eco-innovation and customers boycott behaviour," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Sharma, Kavita & Licsandru, Tana Cristina & Gupta, Suraksha & Aggarwal, Swati & Kanungo, Rama, 2020. "An investigation into corporate trust and its linkages," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 806-824.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:18:y:2025:i:8:p:431-:d:1716153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.