IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v14y2021i5p189-d540536.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Insuring Hollywood: A Movie Returns Index and the American Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Lauria

    (Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA)

  • Wyatt D. Phillips

    (Department of English, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is the definition of a daily index representing the risk-return on investments in the American film industry. The index should be used to predict the riskiness and the expected return of movie projects at the level of the overall industry and then to determine a premium for insurance for such an investment. Such an index can inform the decision making in relation to risk but also timing. Though not currently legal in the United States, such an index may be relevant at some point in the future or in other countries for film production companies as well as venture capitalists interested in investing in one or a slate of motion picture productions or more broadly in the holdings of a media conglomerate, an exhibition chain, or some other aspect of the media landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Lauria & Wyatt D. Phillips, 2021. "Insuring Hollywood: A Movie Returns Index and the American Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-33, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:5:p:189-:d:540536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/5/189/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/5/189/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. W. Walls, 2005. "Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(3), pages 177-190, August.
    3. Sedgwick, John, 2002. "Product Differentiation At The Movies: Hollywood, 1946 To 1965," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 676-705, September.
    4. Mainik Georg & Schaanning Eric, 2014. "On dependence consistency of CoVaRand some other systemic risk measures," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 31(1), pages 49-77, March.
    5. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
    6. Marco Avellaneda & Robert Buff & Craig Friedman & Nicolas Grandechamp & Lukasz Kruk & Joshua Newman, 2001. "Weighted Monte Carlo: A New Technique For Calibrating Asset-Pricing Models," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 91-119.
    7. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    8. Darren Filson & David Switzer & Portia Besocke, 2005. "At the Movies: The Economics of Exhibition Contracts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 354-369, April.
    9. Ravid, S Abraham, 1999. "Information, Blockbusters, and Stars: A Study of the Film Industry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 463-492, October.
    10. Girardi, Giulio & Tolga Ergün, A., 2013. "Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3169-3180.
    11. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
    12. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 2002. "Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-452, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Don M. Chance & Eric Hillebrand & Jimmy E. Hilliard, 2008. "Pricing an Option on Revenue from an Innovation: An Application to Movie Box Office Revenue," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(5), pages 1015-1028, May.
    2. Jordi McKenzie, 2009. "Revealed word-of-mouth demand and adaptive supply: survival of motion pictures at the Australian box office," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 33(4), pages 279-299, November.
    3. W. David Walls, 2004. "Revenues, Profitability, and Returns: Clinical Analysis of the Market for Mobster Films," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 93-106, August.
    4. W. D. Walls & Jordi McKenzie, 2020. "Black swan models for the entertainment industry with an application to the movie business," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 3019-3032, December.
    5. Juan Prieto-Rodriguez & Fernanda Gutierrez-Navratil & Victoria Ateca-Amestoy, 2015. "Theatre allocation as a distributor’s strategic variable over movie runs," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 39(1), pages 65-83, February.
    6. W. D. Walls, 2005. "Modelling heavy tails and skewness in film returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(17), pages 1181-1188.
    7. Gaenssle Sophia & Budzinski Oliver & Astakhova Daria, 2018. "Conquering the Box Office: Factors Influencing Success of International Movies in Russia," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 245-266, December.
    8. Thorsten Hennig-Thurau & S. Abraham Ravid & Olav Sorenson, 2021. "The Economics of Filmed Entertainment in the Digital Era," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 45(2), pages 157-170, June.
    9. Darlene Chisholm & Víctor Fernández-Blanco & S. Abraham Ravid & W. David Walls, 2015. "Economics of motion pictures: the state of the art," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 39(1), pages 1-13, February.
    10. W. Walls, 2010. "Superstars and heavy tails in recorded entertainment: empirical analysis of the market for DVDs," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(4), pages 261-279, November.
    11. Ana Suárez-Vázquez, 2011. "Critic power or star power? The influence of hallmarks of quality of motion pictures: an experimental approach," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 35(2), pages 119-135, May.
    12. Selvaretnam, Geethanjali & Yang, Jen-Yuan, 2015. "Factors Affecting the Financial Success of Motion Pictures: What is the Role of Star Power?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-19, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Darlene C Chisholm, 2011. "Motion Pictures," Chapters, in: Ruth Towse (ed.), A Handbook of Cultural Economics, Second Edition, chapter 39, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. W. Walls, 2005. "Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(3), pages 177-190, August.
    15. Jordi McKenzie, 2010. "How do theatrical box office revenues affect DVD retail sales? Australian empirical evidence," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(3), pages 159-179, August.
    16. Judith Timmer & Richard J. Boucherie & Esmé Lammers & Niek Baër & Maarten Bos & Arjan Feenstra, 2018. "Estimating the potential of collaborating professionals, with an application to the Dutch film industry," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(1), pages 69-95, January.
    17. Selvaretnam, Geethanjali & Yang, Jen-Yuan, 2015. "Factors Affecting the Financial Success of Motion Pictures: What is the Role of Star Power?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    18. Kaimann, Daniel & Pannicke, Julia, 2015. "Movie success in a genre specific contest: Evidence from the US film industry," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 98, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    19. Allègre Hadida, 2010. "Commercial success and artistic recognition of motion picture projects," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(1), pages 45-80, February.
    20. Brinja Meiseberg & Thomas Ehrmann, 2013. "Diversity in teams and the success of cultural products," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(1), pages 61-86, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:5:p:189-:d:540536. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.