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Revenues, Profitability, and Returns: Clinical Analysis of the Market for Mobster Films

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  • W. David Walls

    (Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Canada)

Abstract

We analyze empirically the revenues, profitability, and financial returns of mobster-related movies using data from worldwide theatrical exhibition, television syndication, and video rentals and sales. We quantify the revenues across each window of exhibition in relation to subsequent windows and to the production budget. A regression model is used to show the composition of worldwide revenues in relation to production value across the sequential windows of release. Project-level profitability and returns to investment are found to deviate substantially from normality. For the purpose of investment decision-making and risk management, the distribution of financial returns is fitted using the Levy-stable distribution to account for its high peak and heavy upper tail. Gangster-film profitability prospects are computed from the fitted Levy-stable distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • W. David Walls, 2004. "Revenues, Profitability, and Returns: Clinical Analysis of the Market for Mobster Films," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 93-106, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:3:y:2004:i:2:p:93-106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. Walls, 2005. "Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(3), pages 177-190, August.
    2. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
    3. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 2002. "Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-452, July.
    4. Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November.
    5. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Novriana Sumarti & Rafki Hidayat, 2013. "A Financial Risk Analysis: Does the 2008 Financial Crisis Give Impact on Weekends Returns of the U.S. Movie Box Office?," Papers 1306.0966, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    movie industry; gangster films; Levy-stable distribution;

    JEL classification:

    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions

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