Revenues, Profitability, and Returns: Clinical Analysis of the Market for Mobster Films
We analyze empirically the revenues, profitability, and financial returns of mobster-related movies using data from worldwide theatrical exhibition, television syndication, and video rentals and sales. We quantify the revenues across each window of exhibition in relation to subsequent windows and to the production budget. A regression model is used to show the composition of worldwide revenues in relation to production value across the sequential windows of release. Project-level profitability and returns to investment are found to deviate substantially from normality. For the purpose of investment decision-making and risk management, the distribution of financial returns is fitted using the Levy-stable distribution to account for its high peak and heavy upper tail. Gangster-film profitability prospects are computed from the fitted Levy-stable distribution.
Volume (Year): 3 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
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- W. Walls, 2005.
"Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns,"
Journal of Cultural Economics,
Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 177-190, August.
- W David Walls, 2004. "Modeling movie success when "nobody knows anything": Conditional stable distribution analysis of film returns," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 409, Econometric Society.
- Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 2002.
"Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-452, July.
- De Vany, A. & Walls, W.D., 2000. "Does Hollywood make too many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," Papers 99-00-24, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
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