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Secular Trends of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Guo

    (Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430022, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jianjun Bai

    (School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Xiaoxia Zhang

    (Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430022, China)

  • Qiman Jin

    (Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430022, China)

  • Yijun Liu

    (Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430022, China)

  • Chuanhua Yu

    (School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China)

Abstract

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been an important public health issue in China. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in mortality and years of life lost (YLL) from COPD, and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019. Methods: Data were collected from the cause of death surveillance system in Wuhan. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized YLL rate (ASYR) and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was adopted to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects. Results: From 2010 to 2019, COPD accounted for 26,051.15 deaths and 394,659.58 person years YLL in Wuhan. Recently, the death burden of COPD in Wuhan has somewhat improved, especially after 2015, with declining trends in ASMR and ASYR. Additionally, the ASMR and ASYR of COPD was higher in males. And these of males showed the overall upward trends, with EAPCs of 1.06 (0.13, 2.00) and 1.21 (0.12, 2.31), respectively, while females showed downward trends since 2010. According to APC model, the age effect of COPD increased with age, and the cohort risk ratios (RRs) followed the overall downward trends. Period RRs for the Wuhan population generally tended to rise and then fall, with females showing a clear downward trend after 2015, while period RRs for males maintained an upward trend throughout the study period. Conclusions: Recently, the death burden from COPD in Wuhan has improved, especially after 2015, with improvements in ASMR, ASYR and period RRs. Sex differences still exist. COPD posed a greater threat to the elderly, especially males. Public health managers should continue to execute more targeted programs to lessen the death burden of COPD in Wuhan.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Guo & Jianjun Bai & Xiaoxia Zhang & Qiman Jin & Yijun Liu & Chuanhua Yu, 2022. "Secular Trends of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-11, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:17:p:10685-:d:899312
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yang Yang, 2008. "Trends in U.S. adult chronic disease mortality, 1960–1999: age, period, and cohort variations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 387-416, May.
    2. Haoyu Wen & Cong Xie & Lu Wang & Fang Wang & Yafeng Wang & Xiaoxue Liu & Chuanhua Yu, 2019. "Difference in Long-Term Trends in COPD Mortality between China and the U.S., 1992–2017: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, April.
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