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Impact of Heat and Cold on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Vadu HDSS—A Rural Setting in Western India

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  • Vijendra Ingole

    (Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre, Pune 411011, India
    Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden
    INDEPTH Network, Accra KD 213, Ghana)

  • Joacim Rocklöv

    (Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden)

  • Sanjay Juvekar

    (Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre, Pune 411011, India
    INDEPTH Network, Accra KD 213, Ghana)

  • Barbara Schumann

    (Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden
    Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden)

Abstract

Many diseases are affected by changes in weather. There have been limited studies, however, which have examined the relationship between heat and cold and cause-specific mortality in low and middle-income countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effects of heat and cold days on total and cause-specific mortality in the Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) area in western India. We used a quasi-Poisson regression model allowing for over-dispersion to examine the association of total and cause-specific mortality with extreme high (98th percentile, >39 °C) and low temperature (2nd percentile, <25 °C) over the period January 2003 to December 2012. Delays of 0 and 0–4 days were considered and relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Heat was significantly associated with daily deaths by non-infectious diseases (RR = 1.57; CI: 1.18–2.10). There was an increase in the risk of total mortality in the age group 12–59 years on lag 0 day (RR = 1.43; CI: 1.02–1.99). A high increase in total mortality was observed among men at lag 0 day (RR = 1.38; CI: 1.05–1.83). We did not find any short-term association between total and cause-specific mortality and cold days. Deaths from neither infectious nor external causes were associated with heat or cold. Our results showed a strong and rather immediate relationship between high temperatures and non-infectious disease mortality in a rural population located in western India, during 2003–2012. This study may be used to develop targeted interventions such as Heat Early Warning Systems in the area to reduce mortality from extreme temperatures.

Suggested Citation

  • Vijendra Ingole & Joacim Rocklöv & Sanjay Juvekar & Barbara Schumann, 2015. "Impact of Heat and Cold on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Vadu HDSS—A Rural Setting in Western India," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:12:p:14980-15308:d:59795
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    3. Thaddaeus Egondi & Catherine Kyobutungi & Joacim Rocklöv, 2015. "Temperature Variation and Heat Wave and Cold Spell Impacts on Years of Life Lost Among the Urban Poor Population of Nairobi, Kenya," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-14, March.
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    1. Emmanuel A. Odame & Ying Li & Shimin Zheng & Ambarish Vaidyanathan & Ken Silver, 2018. "Assessing Heat-Related Mortality Risks among Rural Populations: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Evidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-15, July.

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