IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v9y2016i7p523-d73577.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Study of Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecast Based on Error Calibration under Typical Climate Categories

Author

Listed:
  • Yajing Gao

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Jing Zhu

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Huaxin Cheng

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Fushen Xue

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Qing Xie

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Peng Li

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

Abstract

With the increasing permeability of photovoltaic (PV) power production, the uncertainties and randomness of PV power have played a critical role in the operation and dispatch of the power grid and amplified the abandon rate of PV power. Consequently, the accuracy of PV power forecast urgently needs to be improved. Based on the amplitude and fluctuation characteristics of the PV power forecast error, a short-term PV output forecast method that considers the error calibration is proposed. Firstly, typical climate categories are defined to classify the historical PV power data. On the one hand, due to the non-negligible diversity of error amplitudes in different categories, the probability density distributions of relative error (RE) are generated for each category. Distribution fitting is performed to simulate probability density function (PDF) curves, and the RE samples are drawn from the fitted curves to obtain the sampling values of the RE. On the other hand, based on the fluctuation characteristic of RE, the recent RE data are utilized to analyze the error fluctuation conditions of the forecast points so as to obtain the compensation values of the RE. The compensation values are adopted to sequence the sampling values by choosing the sampling values closest to the compensation ones to be the fitted values of the RE. On this basis, the fitted values of the RE are employed to correct the forecast values of PV power and improve the forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yajing Gao & Jing Zhu & Huaxin Cheng & Fushen Xue & Qing Xie & Peng Li, 2016. "Study of Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecast Based on Error Calibration under Typical Climate Categories," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:7:p:523-:d:73577
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/7/523/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/7/523/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bridier, Laurent & Hernández-Torres, David & David, Mathieu & Lauret, Phillipe, 2016. "A heuristic approach for optimal sizing of ESS coupled with intermittent renewable sources systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 155-165.
    2. Thomas Huld & Ana M. Gracia Amillo, 2015. "Estimating PV Module Performance over Large Geographical Regions: The Role of Irradiance, Air Temperature, Wind Speed and Solar Spectrum," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-23, June.
    3. Yajing Gao & Huaxin Cheng & Jing Zhu & Haifeng Liang & Peng Li, 2016. "The Optimal Dispatch of a Power System Containing Virtual Power Plants under Fog and Haze Weather," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Fei Wang & Zengqiang Mi & Shi Su & Hongshan Zhao, 2012. "Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-16, May.
    5. Larson, David P. & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Day-ahead forecasting of solar power output from photovoltaic plants in the American Southwest," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 11-20.
    6. Sharma, Vishal & Yang, Dazhi & Walsh, Wilfred & Reindl, Thomas, 2016. "Short term solar irradiance forecasting using a mixed wavelet neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 481-492.
    7. Nantiwat Pholdee & Sujin Bureerat, 2015. "An efficient optimum Latin hypercube sampling technique based on sequencing optimisation using simulated annealing," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(10), pages 1780-1789, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yajing Gao & Yanping Sun & Xiaodan Wang & Feifan Chen & Ali Ehsan & Hongmei Li & Hong Li, 2017. "Multi-Objective Optimized Aggregation of Demand Side Resources Based on a Self-organizing Map Clustering Algorithm Considering a Multi-Scenario Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Weiliang Liu & Changliang Liu & Yongjun Lin & Liangyu Ma & Feng Xiong & Jintuo Li, 2018. "Ultra-Short-Term Forecast of Photovoltaic Output Power under Fog and Haze Weather," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Yajing Gao & Fushen Xue & Wenhai Yang & Yanping Sun & Yongjian Sun & Haifeng Liang & Peng Li, 2017. "A Three-Part Electricity Price Mechanism for Photovoltaic-Battery Energy Storage Power Plants Considering the Power Quality and Ancillary Service," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Yajing Gao & Wenhai Yang & Jing Zhu & Jiafeng Ren & Peng Li, 2017. "Evaluating the Effect of Distributed Generation on Power Supply Capacity in Active Distribution System Based on Sensitivity Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-14, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kushwaha, Vishal & Pindoriya, Naran M., 2019. "A SARIMA-RVFL hybrid model assisted by wavelet decomposition for very short-term solar PV power generation forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 124-139.
    2. Yujing Sun & Fei Wang & Bo Wang & Qifang Chen & N.A. Engerer & Zengqiang Mi, 2016. "Correlation Feature Selection and Mutual Information Theory Based Quantitative Research on Meteorological Impact Factors of Module Temperature for Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Byung-ki Jeon & Eui-Jong Kim, 2020. "Next-Day Prediction of Hourly Solar Irradiance Using Local Weather Forecasts and LSTM Trained with Non-Local Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
    4. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    5. Faramarz Saghi & Mustafa Jahangoshai Rezaee, 2023. "Integrating Wavelet Decomposition and Fuzzy Transformation for Improving the Accuracy of Forecasting Crude Oil Price," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 559-591, February.
    6. Federica Cucchiella & Idiano D’Adamo & Paolo Rosa, 2015. "Industrial Photovoltaic Systems: An Economic Analysis in Non-Subsidized Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    7. Hamed Khodayar Sahebi & Siamak Hoseinzadeh & Hossein Ghadamian & Mohammad Hadi Ghasemi & Farbod Esmaeilion & Davide Astiaso Garcia, 2021. "Techno-Economic Analysis and New Design of a Photovoltaic Power Plant by a Direct Radiation Amplification System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Anilkumar, T.T. & Simon, Sishaj P. & Padhy, Narayana Prasad, 2017. "Residential electricity cost minimization model through open well-pico turbine pumped storage system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 23-35.
    10. Tang, Daogui & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2023. "Vulnerability analysis of demand-response with renewable energy integration in smart grids to cyber attacks and online detection methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    11. Mohsen Beigi & Hossein Beigi Harchegani & Mehdi Torki & Mohammad Kaveh & Mariusz Szymanek & Esmail Khalife & Jacek Dziwulski, 2022. "Forecasting of Power Output of a PVPS Based on Meteorological Data Using RNN Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, March.
    12. Javier López Gómez & Ana Ogando Martínez & Francisco Troncoso Pastoriza & Lara Febrero Garrido & Enrique Granada Álvarez & José Antonio Orosa García, 2020. "Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks and Numerical Weather Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Mohanty, Sthitapragyan & Patra, Prashanta K. & Sahoo, Sudhansu S. & Mohanty, Asit, 2017. "Forecasting of solar energy with application for a growing economy like India: Survey and implication," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 539-553.
    14. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    15. Kaplanis, S. & Kaplani, E. & Kaldellis, J.K., 2022. "PV temperature and performance prediction in free-standing, BIPV and BAPV incorporating the effect of temperature and inclination on the heat transfer coefficients and the impact of wind, efficiency a," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 235-249.
    16. Yang, Yuqing & Bremner, Stephen & Menictas, Chris & Kay, Merlinde, 2022. "Forecasting error processing techniques and frequency domain decomposition for forecasting error compensation and renewable energy firming in hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    17. Di Somma, M. & Graditi, G. & Heydarian-Forushani, E. & Shafie-khah, M. & Siano, P., 2018. "Stochastic optimal scheduling of distributed energy resources with renewables considering economic and environmental aspects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 272-287.
    18. Ming Meng & Chenge Song, 2020. "Daily Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting Model Based on Random Forest Algorithm for North China in Winter," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Nuño, Edgar & Maule, Petr & Hahmann, Andrea & Cutululis, Nicolaos & Sørensen, Poul & Karagali, Ioanna, 2018. "Simulation of transcontinental wind and solar PV generation time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 425-436.
    20. Ying-Yi Hong & Ti-Hsuan Yu & Ching-Yun Liu, 2013. "Hour-Ahead Wind Speed and Power Forecasting Using Empirical Mode Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-16, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:7:p:523-:d:73577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.