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A Novel Hybrid Short Term Load Forecasting Model Considering the Error of Numerical Weather Prediction

Author

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  • Guowei Cai

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China)

  • Wenjin Wang

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China)

  • Junhai Lu

    (State Grid LiaoNing Electric Power Supply Co. Ltd., Shenyang 110000, China)

Abstract

In order to reduce the effect of numerical weather prediction (NWP) error on short term load forecasting (STLF) and improve the forecasting accuracy, a new hybrid model based on support vector regression (SVR) optimized by an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm (ABC-SVR) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is proposed. According to the different day types and effect of the NWP error on forecasting prediction, working days and weekends load forecasting models are selected and constructed, respectively. The ABC-SVR method is used to forecast weekends load with large fluctuation, in which the best parameters of SVR are determined by the ABC algorithm. The working days load forecasting model is constructed based on SARIMA modified by ABC-SVR (AS-SARIMA). In the AS-SARIMA model, the ability of SARIMA to respond to exogenous variables is improved and the effect of NWP error on prediction accuracy is reduced more than with ABC-SVR. Contrast experiments are constructed based on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) New England load data. The experimental results show that prediction accuracy of the proposed method is less affected by NWP error and has higher forecasting accuracy than contrasting approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Guowei Cai & Wenjin Wang & Junhai Lu, 2016. "A Novel Hybrid Short Term Load Forecasting Model Considering the Error of Numerical Weather Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:12:p:994-:d:83794
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yixiang Ma & Lean Yu & Guoxing Zhang, 2022. "A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on a Multi-Trait-Driven Methodology and Secondary Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Jin-peng Liu & Chang-ling Li, 2017. "The Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Sperm Whale Algorithm and Wavelet Least Square Support Vector Machine with DWT-IR for Feature Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    4. Zhiwei Li & Tianran Jin & Shuqiang Zhao & Jinshan Liu, 2018. "Power System Day-Ahead Unit Commitment Based on Chance-Constrained Dependent Chance Goal Programming," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Bin Li & Mingzhen Lu & Yiyi Zhang & Jia Huang, 2019. "A Weekend Load Forecasting Model Based on Semi-Parametric Regression Analysis Considering Weather and Load Interaction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Taorong Jia & Lixiao Yao & Guoqing Yang & Qi He, 2022. "A Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method of Based on the CEEMDAN-MVO-GRU," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Md Jamal Ahmed Shohan & Md Omar Faruque & Simon Y. Foo, 2022. "Forecasting of Electric Load Using a Hybrid LSTM-Neural Prophet Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.

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