IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v101y2013icp489-501.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new hybrid day-ahead peak load forecasting method for Iran’s National Grid

Author

Listed:
  • Moazzami, M.
  • Khodabakhshian, A.
  • Hooshmand, R.

Abstract

This paper presents a new hybrid forecasting engine for day-ahead peak load prediction in Iran National Grid (ING). In this forecasting engine the seasonal data bases of the historical peak load demand on the similar days with their weather information given for three cities (Tehran, Tabriz and Ahvaz) have been used. Wavelet decomposition is used to capture low and high frequency components of each data base from original noisy signals. A separate ANN with an iterative training mechanism which is optimized by genetic algorithm is employed for each low and high frequency data base. A day-ahead peak demand is determined with the reconstruction of low and high frequency output components of each ANN. Simulation results show the effectiveness and the superiority of the proposed strategy when compared with other methods for daily peak load demand forecasting in ING and EUNITE test cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Moazzami, M. & Khodabakhshian, A. & Hooshmand, R., 2013. "A new hybrid day-ahead peak load forecasting method for Iran’s National Grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 489-501.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:101:y:2013:i:c:p:489-501
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.06.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261912004515
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.06.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. AlRashidi, M.R. & EL-Naggar, K.M., 2010. "Long term electric load forecasting based on particle swarm optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 320-326, January.
    2. Javed, Fahad & Arshad, Naveed & Wallin, Fredrik & Vassileva, Iana & Dahlquist, Erik, 2012. "Forecasting for demand response in smart grids: An analysis on use of anthropologic and structural data and short term multiple loads forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 150-160.
    3. Li, Qiong & Meng, Qinglin & Cai, Jiejin & Yoshino, Hiroshi & Mochida, Akashi, 2009. "Applying support vector machine to predict hourly cooling load in the building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 2249-2256, October.
    4. Kankal, Murat & AkpInar, Adem & Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan & Özsahin, Talat Sükrü, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1927-1939, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Hernández & Carlos Baladrón & Javier M. Aguiar & Lorena Calavia & Belén Carro & Antonio Sánchez-Esguevillas & Javier Sanjuán & Álvaro González & Jaime Lloret, 2013. "Improved Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Two-Stage Predictions with Artificial Neural Networks in a Microgrid Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Jacinta Chan Phooi M’ng & Mohammadali Mehralizadeh, 2016. "Forecasting East Asian Indices Futures via a Novel Hybrid of Wavelet-PCA Denoising and Artificial Neural Network Models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-29, June.
    3. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
    4. Jiang, Ping & Liu, Feng & Song, Yiliao, 2017. "A hybrid forecasting model based on date-framework strategy and improved feature selection technology for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 694-709.
    5. Andersen, F.M. & Larsen, H.V. & Juul, N. & Gaardestrup, R.B., 2014. "Differentiated long term projections of the hourly electricity consumption in local areas. The case of Denmark West," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 523-538.
    6. Yu, L. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2016. "A fuzzy-stochastic simulation-optimization model for planning electric power systems with considering peak-electricity demand: A case study of Qingdao, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 190-203.
    7. Zhang, Liang & Wen, Jin & Li, Yanfei & Chen, Jianli & Ye, Yunyang & Fu, Yangyang & Livingood, William, 2021. "A review of machine learning in building load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    8. Zhu, Jizhong & Dong, Hanjiang & Zheng, Weiye & Li, Shenglin & Huang, Yanting & Xi, Lei, 2022. "Review and prospect of data-driven techniques for load forecasting in integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    9. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
    10. Deihimi, Ali & Orang, Omid & Showkati, Hemen, 2013. "Short-term electric load and temperature forecasting using wavelet echo state networks with neural reconstruction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 382-401.
    11. Winita Sulandari & Yudho Yudhanto & Paulo Canas Rodrigues, 2022. "The Use of Singular Spectrum Analysis and K-Means Clustering-Based Bootstrap to Improve Multistep Ahead Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    12. He, Feifei & Zhou, Jianzhong & Mo, Li & Feng, Kuaile & Liu, Guangbiao & He, Zhongzheng, 2020. "Day-ahead short-term load probability density forecasting method with a decomposition-based quantile regression forest," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    13. Guowei Cai & Wenjin Wang & Junhai Lu, 2016. "A Novel Hybrid Short Term Load Forecasting Model Considering the Error of Numerical Weather Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    14. He, Yaoyao & Xu, Qifa & Wan, Jinhong & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 498-512.
    15. Huang, Yanmei & Hasan, Najmul & Deng, Changrui & Bao, Yukun, 2022. "Multivariate empirical mode decomposition based hybrid model for day-ahead peak load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    16. Monjazeb, Mohammad Reza & Amiri, Hossein & Movahedi, Akram, 2024. "Wholesale electricity price forecasting by Quantile Regression and Kalman Filter method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    17. Li, Song & Goel, Lalit & Wang, Peng, 2016. "An ensemble approach for short-term load forecasting by extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 22-29.
    18. Andersen, F.M. & Larsen, H.V. & Gaardestrup, R.B., 2013. "Long term forecasting of hourly electricity consumption in local areas in Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 147-162.
    19. He, Feifei & Zhou, Jianzhong & Feng, Zhong-kai & Liu, Guangbiao & Yang, Yuqi, 2019. "A hybrid short-term load forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks considering relevant factors with Bayesian optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 103-116.
    20. Che, JinXing & Wang, JianZhou, 2014. "Short-term load forecasting using a kernel-based support vector regression combination model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 602-609.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seyedeh Narjes Fallah & Ravinesh Chand Deo & Mohammad Shojafar & Mauro Conti & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2018. "Computational Intelligence Approaches for Energy Load Forecasting in Smart Energy Management Grids: State of the Art, Future Challenges, and Research Directions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Wang, Xingwei & Cai, Yanpeng & Chen, Jiajun & Dai, Chao, 2013. "A grey-forecasting interval-parameter mixed-integer programming approach for integrated electric-environmental management–A case study of Beijing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-344.
    3. Liu, Nian & Tang, Qingfeng & Zhang, Jianhua & Fan, Wei & Liu, Jie, 2014. "A hybrid forecasting model with parameter optimization for short-term load forecasting of micro-grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 336-345.
    4. Muhammad Muhitur Rahman & Syed Masiur Rahman & Md Shafiullah & Md Arif Hasan & Uneb Gazder & Abdullah Al Mamun & Umer Mansoor & Mohammad Tamim Kashifi & Omer Reshi & Md Arifuzzaman & Md Kamrul Islam &, 2022. "Energy Demand of the Road Transport Sector of Saudi Arabia—Application of a Causality-Based Machine Learning Model to Ensure Sustainable Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Kaboli, S. Hr. Aghay & Fallahpour, A. & Selvaraj, J. & Rahim, N.A., 2017. "Long-term electrical energy consumption formulating and forecasting via optimized gene expression programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 144-164.
    6. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    7. Wu, Zhibin & Xu, Jiuping, 2013. "Predicting and optimization of energy consumption using system dynamics-fuzzy multiple objective programming in world heritage areas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 19-31.
    8. Bingchun Liu & Chuanchuan Fu & Arlene Bielefield & Yan Quan Liu, 2017. "Forecasting of Chinese Primary Energy Consumption in 2021 with GRU Artificial Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, September.
    9. Fanidhar Dewangan & Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz & Monalisa Biswal, 2023. "Load Forecasting Models in Smart Grid Using Smart Meter Information: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-55, January.
    10. Li, Song & Goel, Lalit & Wang, Peng, 2016. "An ensemble approach for short-term load forecasting by extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 22-29.
    11. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    12. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    13. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Gusti Ayu Novi Yutami, I, 2014. "Smart meter adoption and deployment strategy for residential buildings in Indonesia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 336-349.
    14. Byungsung Lee & Haesung Lee & Hyun Ahn, 2020. "Improving Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Through Missing Data Imputation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-15, September.
    15. Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar & Aneesh A. Chand & Maria Malvoni & Kushal A. Prasad & Kabir A. Mamun & F.R. Islam & Shauhrat S. Chopra, 2020. "Distributed Energy Resources and the Application of AI, IoT, and Blockchain in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-42, November.
    16. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
    17. Dong, Jun & Xue, Guiyuan & Li, Rong, 2016. "Demand response in China: Regulations, pilot projects and recommendations – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 13-27.
    18. Tian, Wei & Song, Jitian & Li, Zhanyong & de Wilde, Pieter, 2014. "Bootstrap techniques for sensitivity analysis and model selection in building thermal performance analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 320-328.
    19. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Ahmad, Muhammad Waseem & Mourshed, Monjur & Rezgui, Yacine, 2018. "Tree-based ensemble methods for predicting PV power generation and their comparison with support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 465-474.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:101:y:2013:i:c:p:489-501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.