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Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines

Author

Listed:
  • John D. Sørensen

    (Aalborg University and Risø-DTU, Sohngaardsholmsvej 57, DK-9000 Aalborg, Denmark)

  • Henrik S. Toft

    (Aalborg University, Sohngaardsholmsvej 57, DK-9000 Aalborg, Denmark)

Abstract

Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability levels and recommendation for consideration of system aspects. The uncertainties are characterized as aleatoric (physical uncertainty) or epistemic (statistical, measurement and model uncertainties). Methods for uncertainty modeling consistent with methods for estimating the reliability are described. It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • John D. Sørensen & Henrik S. Toft, 2010. "Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:3:y:2010:i:2:p:241-257:d:7190
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wilkie, David & Galasso, Carmine, 2020. "A probabilistic framework for offshore wind turbine loss assessment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 1772-1783.
    2. Adedipe, Tosin & Shafiee, Mahmood & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Bayesian Network Modelling for the Wind Energy Industry: An Overview," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Jianjun Qin & Michael Havbro Faber, 2019. "Resilience Informed Integrity Management of Wind Turbine Parks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Hesam Mirzaei Rafsanjani & John Dalsgaard Sørensen & Søren Fæster & Asger Sturlason, 2017. "Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbine Cast Components," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Michael Muskulus, 2015. "Pareto-Optimal Evaluation of Ultimate Limit States in Offshore Wind Turbine Structural Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Qin, Mengfei & Shi, Wei & Chai, Wei & Fu, Xing & Li, Lin & Li, Xin, 2023. "Extreme structural response prediction and fatigue damage evaluation for large-scale monopile offshore wind turbines subject to typhoon conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 450-464.
    7. Liu, Min & Qin, Jianjun & Lu, Da-Gang & Zhang, Wei-Heng & Zhu, Jiang-Sheng & Faber, Michael Havbro, 2022. "Towards resilience of offshore wind farms: A framework and application to asset integrity management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    8. Liao, Ding & Zhu, Shun-Peng & Correia, José A.F.O. & De Jesus, Abílio M.P. & Veljkovic, Milan & Berto, Filippo, 2022. "Fatigue reliability of wind turbines: historical perspectives, recent developments and future prospects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 724-742.
    9. Okpokparoro, Salem & Sriramula, Srinivas, 2021. "Uncertainty modeling in reliability analysis of floating wind turbine support structures," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1), pages 88-108.
    10. Zhiyu Jiang & Weifei Hu & Wenbin Dong & Zhen Gao & Zhengru Ren, 2017. "Structural Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Kostandyan, Erik E. & Sørensen, John D., 2012. "Physics of failure as a basis for solder elements reliability assessment in wind turbines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 100-107.
    12. Ramezani, Mahyar & Choe, Do-Eun & Heydarpour, Khashayar & Koo, Bonjun, 2023. "Uncertainty models for the structural design of floating offshore wind turbines: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

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