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Study of Potential Embodied Carbon Transfer Flows Based on Link Prediction Model

Author

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  • Ruijin Du

    (Institute of Carbon Neutrality Development, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
    School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China)

  • Yue Liu

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China)

  • Xiaorui Guo

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China)

  • Gaogao Dong

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China)

  • Lixin Tian

    (Institute of Carbon Neutrality Development, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
    School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210042, China)

  • Xinghua Fan

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China)

  • Muhammad Ahsan

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China)

Abstract

In the increasingly severe situation of global climate change, reducing CO 2 emissions has become the consensus of governments. Grounded in the principle of consumer responsibility, policymakers are increasingly focusing on the cross-regional transfer of carbon emissions to delineate responsibilities more clearly. Evaluating embodied carbon emissions ( E C s ) in goods and services and forecasting transfer pathways is essential for driving the energy transition and devising effective carbon-reduction strategies. This study summarizes the evolutionary characteristics of the global E C -transfer network from 2013 to 2022 and analyzes the underlying causes. Further, a link prediction model incorporating both endogenous and exogenous factors is developed to investigate potential E C -transfer pathways. The findings reveal the following: (1) Since 2013, China, Russia, and India have dominated net E C out-strength, accounting for over 70% of total E C -transfer strength, primarily directed towards the European Union (EU) and the United States (USA). (2) The analysis of net E C out-intensity and in-intensity indicates that countries like Russia and South Africa have more carbon-emitting export-oriented industries in their economic structure and should transfer the corresponding carbon-emission responsibility to downstream consuming countries. Countries like Mexico and Switzerland, due to their reliance on importing E C -intensive products, should assume the corresponding carbon-emission responsibility. (3) Economies such as Germany, China, the USA, and France, characterized by high E C -transfer efficiency, serve as key drivers for the implementation of global emission-reduction strategies. (4) The link prediction based on the proposed hybrid similarity indicator has the highest accuracy. The results reveal a higher probability of forming stable links between net E C importers, and between net E C importers and exporters. This study enhances policymakers’ understanding of international trade and E C management, and facilitates the development of long-term strategies for cross-national collaborative emission reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruijin Du & Yue Liu & Xiaorui Guo & Gaogao Dong & Lixin Tian & Xinghua Fan & Muhammad Ahsan, 2025. "Study of Potential Embodied Carbon Transfer Flows Based on Link Prediction Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:8:p:2068-:d:1636699
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    References listed on IDEAS

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