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Probabilistic Small-Signal Modeling and Stability Analysis of the DC Distribution System

Author

Listed:
  • Wenlong Liu

    (State Grid Shanghai Energy Interconnection Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201210, China)

  • Bo Zhang

    (State Grid Shanghai Energy Interconnection Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201210, China)

  • Zimeng Lu

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)

  • Yuming Liao

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)

  • Heng Nian

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)

Abstract

With the advent of large-scale electronic transportation, the construction of electric vehicle charging stations (EVCSs) has increased. The stochastic characteristic of the charging power of EVCSs leads to a risk of destabilization of the DC distribution network when there is a high degree of power electronification. Current deterministic stability analysis methods are too complicated to allow for brief descriptions of the effect of probabilistic characteristics of EVCSs on stability. This paper develops a probabilistic small-signal stability analysis method. Firstly, the probabilistic information of the system is obtained by combining the s-domain nodal impedance matrix based on the point estimation method. Then, the probability function of stability is fitted using the Cornish–Fisher expansion method. Finally, a comparison experiment using Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that this method performs well in balancing accuracy and computational efficiency. The effects of line parameters and system control parameters on stability are investigated in the framework of probabilistic stability. This will provide a probabilistic perspective on the design of more complex power systems in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenlong Liu & Bo Zhang & Zimeng Lu & Yuming Liao & Heng Nian, 2025. "Probabilistic Small-Signal Modeling and Stability Analysis of the DC Distribution System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:5:p:1196-:d:1602513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ogasawara, Haruhiko, 2012. "Cornish-Fisher expansions using sample cumulants and monotonic transformations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Yuan, Meng & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Lund, Henrik & Liang, Yongtu, 2021. "The electrification of transportation in energy transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Tan, Kang Miao & Yong, Jia Ying & Ramachandaramurthy, Vigna K. & Mansor, Muhamad & Teh, Jiashen & Guerrero, Josep M., 2023. "Factors influencing global transportation electrification: Comparative analysis of electric and internal combustion engine vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
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