IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i3p516-d1574490.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on Short-Term Load Forecasting of LSTM Regional Power Grid Based on Multi-Source Parameter Coupling

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Li

    (Electric Power Science Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Kunming 650217, China)

  • Yaohua Liao

    (Electric Power Science Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Kunming 650217, China)

  • Siyang Liu

    (Electric Power Science Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Kunming 650217, China)

  • Chao Liu

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)

  • Zhensheng Wu

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)

Abstract

Regional power grid load has strong periodicity and randomness, and its load characteristics are affected by many factors. Traditional short-term power load-forecasting methods have certain limitations in accuracy and stability, especially when dealing with complex weather and voltage changes. To improve the prediction accuracy, this paper proposes a short-term power load-forecasting model of a regional power grid based on multi-source parameter coupling with a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) and adopts an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm to optimize the LSTM network. Firstly, load characteristics under different time dimensions were analyzed, combined with meteorological factors such as daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, air humidity, and historical load data, multi-source data were coupled, and date types were quantified by independent thermal coding technology to ensure a reasonable model input data set. Different from traditional methods, this paper introduces real-time coupling data of intensive sensing, which makes the model more sensitive to capture the subtle characteristics of load changes. In order to further optimize the performance of the LSTM model, the IPSO algorithm, and linear difference decreasing inertia weight are introduced to improve the global optimization ability and convergence speed of the PSO algorithm and reduce the risk of local optimal solutions. Finally, the accuracy of the model is verified by the measured data of dense sensing in a regional power grid in northern China. The calculation results show that the prediction model based on multi-source parameter coupling has higher accuracy and stability in short-term load forecasting. Compared with traditional forecasting methods, the mean relative error (MAPE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the mean absolute error (MAE) are reduced by 1.8149%, 154.0884, and 130.6769, respectively. In the typical day prediction of different seasons, the model can keep the relative error of more than 90% sampling points below 2%. The average relative error is basically less than 1%. The model proposed in this paper shows higher accuracy and stronger practical application potential compared with traditional forecasting methods, especially in voltage monitoring and power grid dispatching.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Li & Yaohua Liao & Siyang Liu & Chao Liu & Zhensheng Wu, 2025. "Research on Short-Term Load Forecasting of LSTM Regional Power Grid Based on Multi-Source Parameter Coupling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:3:p:516-:d:1574490
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/3/516/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/3/516/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ko, Chia-Nan & Lee, Cheng-Ming, 2013. "Short-term load forecasting using SVR (support vector regression)-based radial basis function neural network with dual extended Kalman filter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 413-422.
    2. Liang, Yi & Niu, Dongxiao & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2019. "Short term load forecasting based on feature extraction and improved general regression neural network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 653-663.
    3. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Talaat, M. & Farahat, M.A. & Mansour, Noura & Hatata, A.Y., 2020. "Load forecasting based on grasshopper optimization and a multilayer feed-forward neural network using regressive approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Shi, Jian & Teh, Jiashen, 2024. "Load forecasting for regional integrated energy system based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and multi-model fusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    3. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    4. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    5. Ding, Song & Cai, Zhijian & Qin, Xinghuan & Shen, Xingao, 2024. "Comparative assessment and policy analysis of forecasting quarterly renewable energy demand: Fresh evidence from an innovative seasonal approach with superior matching algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    6. Luo, X.J. & Oyedele, Lukumon O. & Ajayi, Anuoluwapo O. & Akinade, Olugbenga O. & Owolabi, Hakeem A. & Ahmed, Ashraf, 2020. "Feature extraction and genetic algorithm enhanced adaptive deep neural network for energy consumption prediction in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Zhu, Xiaoxun & Liu, Ruizhang & Chen, Yao & Gao, Xiaoxia & Wang, Yu & Xu, Zixu, 2021. "Wind speed behaviors feather analysis and its utilization on wind speed prediction using 3D-CNN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Lee, Yoonjae & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho, 2022. "Generative model-based hybrid forecasting model for renewable electricity supply using long short-term memory networks: A case study of South Korea's energy transition policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 69-87.
    9. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    10. Sareen, Karan & Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan & Shikhola, Tushar & Sharma, Rajneesh, 2023. "An imputation and decomposition algorithms based integrated approach with bidirectional LSTM neural network for wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    11. Nebojsa Bacanin & Catalin Stoean & Miodrag Zivkovic & Miomir Rakic & Roma Strulak-Wójcikiewicz & Ruxandra Stoean, 2023. "On the Benefits of Using Metaheuristics in the Hyperparameter Tuning of Deep Learning Models for Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Zhang, Yagang & Zhang, Jinghui & Yu, Leyi & Pan, Zhiya & Feng, Changyou & Sun, Yiqian & Wang, Fei, 2022. "A short-term wind energy hybrid optimal prediction system with denoising and novel error correction technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    13. Zhang, Haipeng & Wang, Jianzhou & Qian, Yuansheng & Li, Qiwei, 2024. "Point and interval wind speed forecasting of multivariate time series based on dual-layer LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    14. Bashir, Hassan & Sibtain, Muhammad & Hanay, Özge & Azam, Muhammad Imran & Qurat-ul-Ain, & Saleem, Snoober, 2023. "Decomposition and Harris hawks optimized multivariate wind speed forecasting utilizing sequence2sequence-based spatiotemporal attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    15. Dokur, Emrah & Erdogan, Nuh & Salari, Mahdi Ebrahimi & Karakuzu, Cihan & Murphy, Jimmy, 2022. "Offshore wind speed short-term forecasting based on a hybrid method: Swarm decomposition and meta-extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    16. Cardo-Miota, Javier & Trivedi, Rohit & Patra, Sandipan & Khadem, Shafi & Bahloul, Mohamed, 2024. "Data-driven approach for day-ahead System Non-Synchronous Penetration forecasting: A comprehensive framework, model development and analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
    17. Hu, Yusha & Li, Jigeng & Hong, Mengna & Ren, Jingzheng & Lin, Ruojue & Liu, Yue & Liu, Mengru & Man, Yi, 2019. "Short term electric load forecasting model and its verification for process industrial enterprises based on hybrid GA-PSO-BPNN algorithm—A case study of papermaking process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1215-1227.
    18. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    19. Zhu, Yuli & Jiang, Bo & Zhu, Jiangong & Wang, Xueyuan & Wang, Rong & Wei, Xuezhe & Dai, Haifeng, 2023. "Adaptive state of health estimation for lithium-ion batteries using impedance-based timescale information and ensemble learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    20. Wen, Songkang & Li, Yanting & Su, Yan, 2022. "A new hybrid model for power forecasting of a wind farm using spatial–temporal correlations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 155-168.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:3:p:516-:d:1574490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.