Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of China’s Embodied Oil Flows: A Consumer-Side Perspective

Oil consumption brings both energy security risks and environmental responsibilities. While traditional studies assign environmental responsibility primarily to oil producers, our research uncovers a geographical displacement of accountability: substantial oil volumes are embedded in traded goods and ultimately consumed in distant regions. Although China’s “dual control” policy regulates fossil energy use, it fails to account for the complexities of embodied oil flows. This oversight leads to imbalanced interregional responsibility allocation and resource exploitation issues. Adopting the “consumer pays” principle, this study makes methodological advances by innovatively combining multi-regional input–output (MRIO) modeling with geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) analysis. The integrated approach provides spatial–temporal resolution in tracking embodied oil flows and their drivers across China’s provinces. Key findings include (1) strong concentration of oil inflows in developed eastern and central provinces, alongside rapid growth in southwestern regions; (2) evolving temporal patterns where economic growth and distance remain persistent drivers, while green technology and urbanization emerge as growing mitigating factors; (3) spatially, northwestern regions rely heavily on external supplies due to economic growth and urbanization, southeastern areas face rising transport costs, while green technologies in coastal regions have yet to significantly curb inflows due to rebound effects. These insights provide a new analytical framework for energy policy, supporting region-specific solutions to balance development and sustainability from a consumption perspective.