IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i11p2832-d1667535.html

Air Conditioning Load Forecasting for Geographical Grids Using Deep Reinforcement Learning and Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise and Graph Attention Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Chuan Long

    (State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Xinting Yang

    (State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Yunche Su

    (State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Fang Liu

    (State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Ruiguang Ma

    (State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Tiannan Ma

    (State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Yangjin Wu

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

  • Xiaodong Shen

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

Abstract

Air conditioning loads in power systems exhibit spatiotemporal heterogeneity across geographical regions, complicating accurate load forecasting. This study proposes a framework that integrates Deep Reinforcement Learning-guided DBSCAN (DRL-DBSCAN) clustering with a Graph Attention Network (GAT)-based Graph Neural Network to model spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. Using meteorological features like temperature and humidity, the framework clusters geographical grids and applies GAT to capture spatial patterns. On a Pecan Street dataset of 25 households in Austin, the GAT with DRL-DBSCAN achieves a Test MSE of 0.0216 and MAE of 0.0884, outperforming K-Means (MSE: 0.0523, MAE: 0.1456), Hierarchical clustering (MSE: 0.0478, MAE: 0.1321), no-clustering (MSE: 0.0631, MAE: 0.1678), LSTM (MSE: 0.3259, MAE: 0.3442), Transformer (MSE: 0.6415, MAE: 0.4835), and MLP (MSE: 0.7269, MAE: 0.5240) baselines. This approach enhances forecasting accuracy for real-time grid management and energy efficiency in smart grids, though further refinement is needed for standardizing predicted load ranges.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuan Long & Xinting Yang & Yunche Su & Fang Liu & Ruiguang Ma & Tiannan Ma & Yangjin Wu & Xiaodong Shen, 2025. "Air Conditioning Load Forecasting for Geographical Grids Using Deep Reinforcement Learning and Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise and Graph Attention Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-19, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:11:p:2832-:d:1667535
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/11/2832/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/11/2832/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hahn, Heiko & Meyer-Nieberg, Silja & Pickl, Stefan, 2009. "Electric load forecasting methods: Tools for decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 902-907, December.
    2. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2008. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2705-2721, September.
    3. Hussain, Akhtar & Kazemi, Nazli & Musilek, Petr, 2025. "Clustering-based EV suitability analysis for grid support services," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    4. Haben, Stephen & Giasemidis, Georgios & Ziel, Florian & Arora, Siddharth, 2019. "Short term load forecasting and the effect of temperature at the low voltage level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1469-1484.
    5. Rae-Jun Park & Kyung-Bin Song & Bo-Sung Kwon, 2020. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Algorithm Using a Similar Day Selection Method Based on Reinforcement Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Laiqing Yan & Zutai Yan & Zhenwen Li & Ning Ma & Ran Li & Jian Qin, 2023. "Electricity Market Price Prediction Based on Quadratic Hybrid Decomposition and THPO Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-18, July.
    7. Wang, Lei & He, Yigang, 2022. "M2STAN: Multi-modal multi-task spatiotemporal attention network for multi-location ultra-short-term wind power multi-step predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Efficient mid-term forecasting of hourly electricity load using generalized additive models," Papers 2405.17070, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    2. Imani, Maryam, 2021. "Electrical load-temperature CNN for residential load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Apadula, Francesco & Bassini, Alessandra & Elli, Alberto & Scapin, Simone, 2012. "Relationships between meteorological variables and monthly electricity demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 346-356.
    4. Zimmermann, Monika & Ziel, Florian, 2025. "Efficient mid-term forecasting of hourly electricity load using generalized additive models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    5. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2018. "Short-run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transforms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 149-164.
    6. Kamal Chapagain & Somsak Kittipiyakul & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2020. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting: Impact Analysis of Temperature for Thailand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-29, May.
    7. Kamal Chapagain & Somsak Kittipiyakul, 2018. "Performance Analysis of Short-Term Electricity Demand with Atmospheric Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, April.
    8. Botman, Lola & Lago, Jesus & Becker, Thijs & Vanthournout, Koen & Moor, Bart De, 2025. "A global probabilistic approach for short-term forecasting of individual households electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    9. Po-Chin Wu & Chung-Chih Lee, 2018. "The non-linear impact of monetary policy on international reserves: macroeconomic variables nexus," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 165-185, February.
    10. Wang, Xinlin & Wang, Hao & Li, Shengping & Jin, Haizhen, 2024. "A reinforcement learning-based online learning strategy for real-time short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    11. Li, HongYang & He, Shan & Yuan, JiaWang & Wang, Chao, 2025. "A wind power prediction method integrating dynamic multi-scale spatio-temporal modelling, adaptive multi-strategy local decomposition, and meta-learning ensemble model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    12. Y, Kiguchi & Y, Heo & M, Weeks & R, Choudhary, 2019. "Predicting intra-day load profiles under time-of-use tariffs using smart meter data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 959-970.
    13. Ahamada, Ibrahim & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2011. "How does financial development influence the impact of remittances on growth volatility?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2748-2760.
    14. Sumit Saroha & Marta Zurek-Mortka & Jerzy Ryszard Szymanski & Vineet Shekher & Pardeep Singla, 2021. "Forecasting of Market Clearing Volume Using Wavelet Packet-Based Neural Networks with Tracking Signals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, September.
    15. Harish, Santosh & Singh, Nishmeet & Tongia, Rahul, 2020. "Impact of temperature on electricity demand: Evidence from Delhi and Indian states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    16. Erik Heilmann & Janosch Henze & Heike Wetzel, 2021. "Machine learning in energy forecasts with an application to high frequency electricity consumption data," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202135, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Li, Muyuan & Yao, Jinfeng & Shen, Yanbo & Yuan, Bin & Simmonds, Ian & Liu, Yunyun, 2023. "Impact of synoptic circulation patterns on renewable energy-related variables over China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    18. Möst, Dominik & Keles, Dogan, 2010. "A survey of stochastic modelling approaches for liberalised electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 543-556, December.
    19. Andreas Hefti & Peiyao Shen & King King Li, 2021. "Igniting deliberation in high stake decisions: a field study," ECON - Working Papers 378, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    20. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Wang, Shengwei, 2014. "Development of prediction models for next-day building energy consumption and peak power demand using data mining techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-10.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:11:p:2832-:d:1667535. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.