IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i7p1694-d1369024.html

Potentials of Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP)-Based Optimization for Low-Carbon Hydrogen Production and Development Pathways in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jiani Mao

    (College of Energy Environment and Safety Engineering, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Guangxue Zhang

    (College of Energy Environment and Safety Engineering, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Zhongqian Ling

    (College of Energy Environment and Safety Engineering, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Dingkun Yuan

    (College of Energy Environment and Safety Engineering, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Maosheng Liu

    (College of Energy Environment and Safety Engineering, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Jiangrong Xu

    (College of Energy Environment and Safety Engineering, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, China)

Abstract

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is considered one of the main pillars for transforming the conventional “dark” energy system to a net-zero carbon or “green” energy system. This work reviewed the potential resources for producing low-carbon hydrogen in China, as well as the possible hydrogen production methods based on the available resources. The analysis and comparison of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for different hydrogen production pathways, and the optimal technology mixes to produce H 2 in China from 2020 to 2050 were obtained using the mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimization model. The results were concluded as three major ones: (a) By 2050, the LCOH of solar- and onshore-wind-powered hydrogen will reach around 70–80 $/MWh, which is lower than the current H2 price and the future low-carbon H 2 price. (b) Fuel costs (>40%) and capital investments (~20%) of different hydrogen technologies are the major cost components, and also are the major direction to further reduce the hydrogen price. (c) For the optimal hydrogen technology mix under the higher renewable ratio (70%) in 2050, the installed capacities of the renewable-powered electrolysers are all more than 200 GW, and the overall LCOH is 68.46 $/MWh. This value is higher than the LCOH (62.95 $/MWh) of the scenario with higher coal gasification with carbon capture and the storage (CG-CCS) ratio (>50%). Overall, this work is the first time that hydrogen production methods in China has been discussed comprehensively, as well as the acquisition of the optimal H2 production technology mix by the MILP optimization model, which can provide guidance on future hydrogen development pathways and technology development potential in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiani Mao & Guangxue Zhang & Zhongqian Ling & Dingkun Yuan & Maosheng Liu & Jiangrong Xu, 2024. "Potentials of Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP)-Based Optimization for Low-Carbon Hydrogen Production and Development Pathways in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:7:p:1694-:d:1369024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/7/1694/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/7/1694/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Houjian Li & Xinya Huang & Deheng Zhou & Andi Cao & Mengying Su & Yufeng Wang & Lili Guo, 2022. "Forecasting Carbon Price in China: A Multimodel Comparison," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Junfeng, Li & Wan, Yih-huei & Ohi, James M., 1997. "Renewable energy development in China: Resource assessment, technology status, and greenhouse gas mitigation potential," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 56(3-4), pages 381-394, March.
    3. Yue, Meiling & Lambert, Hugo & Pahon, Elodie & Roche, Robin & Jemei, Samir & Hissel, Daniel, 2021. "Hydrogen energy systems: A critical review of technologies, applications, trends and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Al-Qahtani, Amjad & Parkinson, Brett & Hellgardt, Klaus & Shah, Nilay & Guillen-Gosalbez, Gonzalo, 2021. "Uncovering the true cost of hydrogen production routes using life cycle monetisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    5. Xi Yang & Chris P. Nielsen & Shaojie Song & Michael B. McElroy, 2022. "Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China’s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 955-965, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lifeng Du & Yanmei Yang & Luli Zhou & Min Liu, 2024. "Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential and Economics of Green Hydrogen via Water Electrolysis: A Systematic Review of Value-Chain-Wide Decarbonization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-37, May.
    2. Hren, Robert & Vujanović, Annamaria & Van Fan, Yee & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Krajnc, Damjan & Čuček, Lidija, 2023. "Hydrogen production, storage and transport for renewable energy and chemicals: An environmental footprint assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Rezaei, Sajjad & Hormaza Mejia, Alejandra & Wu, Yanchen & Reed, Jeffrey & Brouwer, Jack, 2025. "Global warming impacts of the transition from fossil fuel conversion and infrastructure to hydrogen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 397(C).
    4. Zaiter, Issa & Ramadan, Mohamad & Bouabid, Ali & Mayyas, Ahmad & El-Fadel, Mutasem & Mezher, Toufic, 2024. "Enabling industrial decarbonization: Framework for hydrogen integration in the industrial energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    5. Mohideen, Mohamedazeem M. & Subramanian, Balachandran & Sun, Jingyi & Ge, Jing & Guo, Han & Radhamani, Adiyodi Veettil & Ramakrishna, Seeram & Liu, Yong, 2023. "Techno-economic analysis of different shades of renewable and non-renewable energy-based hydrogen for fuel cell electric vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Louis Vincent Sroka & Frank Meisel, 2026. "Diversification of import networks for green hydrogen: a case study for Germany," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 96(2), pages 215-248, April.
    7. Andrea Dumančić & Nela Vlahinić Lenz & Lahorko Wagmann, 2024. "Profitability Model of Green Hydrogen Production on an Existing Wind Power Plant Location," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, February.
    8. Mou, Xiaofeng & Zhou, Wei & Bao, Zewei & Huang, Weixing, 2024. "Effective thermal conductivity of LaNi5 powder beds for hydrogen storage: Measurement and theoretical analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    9. Lan, Yuncheng & Lu, Junhui & Wang, Suilin, 2023. "Study of the geometry and structure of a thermoelectric leg with variable material properties and side heat dissipation based on thermodynamic, economic, and environmental analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    10. Gai, Wei-Zhuo & Wang, Le-Yao & Lu, Meng-Yao & Deng, Zhen-Yan, 2023. "Effect of low concentration hydroxides on Al hydrolysis for hydrogen production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    11. Luo, Zongkai & Zou, Guofu & Chen, Ke & Chen, Wenshang & Deng, Qihao & He, Dandi & Xiong, Zhongzhuang & Chen, Ben, 2025. "Evolution of current distribution and performance degradation mechanism of PEMFC during transient loading under gas starvation condition: An experimental study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    12. Wang, Xiaonan & Sun, Wanchen & Zhang, Hao & Guo, Liang & Qu, Dawei & Li, Degang & Yang, Miao & Guo, Yanan & Ma, Xiaoyu, 2026. "Optical diagnostic study of the synergistic improvement in ammonia combustion process by pilot fuel volatility and two-stage injection strategies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    13. Qiang Yue & Xicui Chai & Yujie Zhang & Qi Wang & Heming Wang & Feng Zhao & Wei Ji & Yuqi Lu, 2023. "Analysis of iron and steel production paths on the energy demand and carbon emission in China’s iron and steel industry," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 4065-4085, May.
    14. Yang, Wei-Wei & Tang, Xin-Yuan & Ma, Xu & Li, Jia-Chen & Xu, Chao & He, Ya-Ling, 2023. "Rapid prediction, optimization and design of solar membrane reactor by data-driven surrogate model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    15. Kledja Canaj & Andi Mehmeti & Julio Berbel, 2021. "The Economics of Fruit and Vegetable Production Irrigated with Reclaimed Water Incorporating the Hidden Costs of Life Cycle Environmental Impacts," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    16. Shi, Mengshu & Wang, Weiye & Han, Yaxuan & Huang, Yuansheng, 2022. "Research on comprehensive benefit of hydrogen storage in microgrid system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 621-635.
    17. Murshed, Muntasir, 2019. "Trade Liberalization Policies and Renewable Energy Transition in Low and Middle-Income Countries? An Instrumental Variable Approach," MPRA Paper 97075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Wan, Tianyi & Fu, Hao & Li, Xiaoshan & Wu, Fan & Luo, Cong & Zhang, Liqi, 2025. "Assessment of decarbonization pathway for Chinese road transport sector based on transportation-energy integration systems framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    19. Long, Yaomei & Li, Songyuan & Liu, Guannan & Shen, Lin & Liao, Zhenyang & Lv, Yuan & Zhong, Yong & Li, Yun, 2025. "Effects of hydraulic oil viscosity on the operational performance of ultra-high-pressure hydrogen diaphragm compressors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(C).
    20. Pashchenko, Dmitry, 2023. "Hydrogen-rich gas as a fuel for the gas turbines: A pathway to lower CO2 emission," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:7:p:1694-:d:1369024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.