IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i4p781-d1334508.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Novel Data-Driven Approach for Predicting the Performance Degradation of a Gas Turbine

Author

Listed:
  • Shun Dai

    (Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Xiaoyi Zhang

    (Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Mingyu Luo

    (Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210, China)

Abstract

Gas turbines operate under harsh conditions of high temperature and pressure for extended periods, inevitably experiencing performance degradation. Predicting the performance degradation trend of gas turbines and optimizing planned maintenance cycles are crucial for the economic and safety aspects of gas turbine operation. In this study, a novel data-driven approach for predicting gas turbine performance degradation is proposed. Initially, gas turbine operating data are augmented using a mechanism model. Subsequently, a data-driven performance model is constructed based on support vector regression (SVR) and gas turbine operational characteristics, enabling real-time calculation of performance degradation indicators. Building on this, an Autoregressive Neural Network (AR-Net) is employed to construct a model for predicting the trend of performance degradation. The proposed method is applied to predict performance degradation caused by fouling in the compressor of a gas turbine. Comparative analysis with three other performance degradation prediction methods indicates that the proposed approach accurately identifies the performance degradation trend of gas turbines, determining the optimal maintenance timing. This holds significant importance for the condition-based maintenance of gas turbines.

Suggested Citation

  • Shun Dai & Xiaoyi Zhang & Mingyu Luo, 2024. "A Novel Data-Driven Approach for Predicting the Performance Degradation of a Gas Turbine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-17, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:4:p:781-:d:1334508
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/4/781/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/4/781/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Y.G. & Nilkitsaranont, P., 2009. "Gas turbine performance prognostic for condition-based maintenance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 2152-2161, October.
    2. Sean J. Taylor & Benjamin Letham, 2018. "Forecasting at Scale," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 37-45, January.
    3. Zagorowska, Marta & Schulze Spüntrup, Frederik & Ditlefsen, Arne-Marius & Imsland, Lars & Lunde, Erling & Thornhill, Nina F., 2020. "Adaptive detection and prediction of performance degradation in off-shore turbomachinery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    4. Tahan, Mohammadreza & Tsoutsanis, Elias & Muhammad, Masdi & Abdul Karim, Z.A., 2017. "Performance-based health monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics for condition-based maintenance of gas turbines: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 122-144.
    5. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    6. Sun, Lei & Liu, Tianyuan & Xie, Yonghui & Zhang, Di & Xia, Xinlei, 2021. "Real-time power prediction approach for turbine using deep learning techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kiaee, Mehrdad & Tousi, A.M., 2021. "Vector-based deterioration index for gas turbine gas-path prognostics modeling framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Jeong Ho & Kim, Tong Seop, 2018. "The effects of internal leakage on the performance of a micro gas turbine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 175-184.
    3. Zagorowska, Marta & Schulze Spüntrup, Frederik & Ditlefsen, Arne-Marius & Imsland, Lars & Lunde, Erling & Thornhill, Nina F., 2020. "Adaptive detection and prediction of performance degradation in off-shore turbomachinery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    4. Liu, Xingchen & Sun, Qiuzhuang & Ye, Zhi-Sheng & Yildirim, Murat, 2021. "Optimal multi-type inspection policy for systems with imperfect online monitoring," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. Zhao, Junjie & Li, Yi-Guang & Sampath, Suresh, 2023. "A hierarchical structure built on physical and data-based information for intelligent aero-engine gas path diagnostics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    6. Chen, Yu-Zhi & Zhao, Xu-Dong & Xiang, Heng-Chao & Tsoutsanis, Elias, 2021. "A sequential model-based approach for gas turbine performance diagnostics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    7. Miroslav Navratil & Andrea Kolkova, 2019. "Decomposition and Forecasting Time Series in the Business Economy Using Prophet Forecasting Model," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 26-39.
    8. Mingliang Bai & Jinfu Liu & Yujia Ma & Xinyu Zhao & Zhenhua Long & Daren Yu, 2020. "Long Short-Term Memory Network-Based Normal Pattern Group for Fault Detection of Three-Shaft Marine Gas Turbine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Feng Lu & Jipeng Jiang & Jinquan Huang & Xiaojie Qiu, 2018. "An Iterative Reduced KPCA Hidden Markov Model for Gas Turbine Performance Fault Diagnosis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, July.
    10. Zhou, Jian & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Coal consumption prediction in thermal power units: A feature construction and selection method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    11. Zhao, Guanjia & Cui, Zhipeng & Xu, Jing & Liu, Wenhao & Ma, Suxia, 2022. "Hybrid modeling-based digital twin for performance optimization with flexible operation in the direct air-cooling power unit," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    12. Zhou, Dengji & Yao, Qinbo & Wu, Hang & Ma, Shixi & Zhang, Huisheng, 2020. "Fault diagnosis of gas turbine based on partly interpretable convolutional neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Jayesh Thaker & Robert Höller, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Time Series Forecasting of Solar Energy Based on Irradiance Classification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-26, April.
    14. Yunpeng Cao & Xinran Lv & Guodong Han & Junqi Luan & Shuying Li, 2019. "Research on Gas-Path Fault-Diagnosis Method of Marine Gas Turbine Based on Exergy Loss and Probabilistic Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Srinka Basu & Sugata Sen, 2023. "COVID 19 Pandemic, Socio-Economic Behaviour and Infection Characteristics: An Inter-Country Predictive Study Using Deep Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 645-676, February.
    16. Xin Li & Fengrong Bi & Lipeng Zhang & Xiao Yang & Guichang Zhang, 2022. "An Engine Fault Detection Method Based on the Deep Echo State Network and Improved Multi-Verse Optimizer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Yinghui Huang & Hui Liu & Lin Zhang & Shen Li & Weijun Wang & Zhihong Ren & Zongkui Zhou & Xueyao Ma, 2021. "The Psychological and Behavioral Patterns of Online Psychological Help-Seekers before and during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Text Mining-Based Longitudinal Ecological Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-19, November.
    18. Kiki Ayu & Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo, 2020. "A Holistic Framework for Supporting Maintenance and Asset Management Life Cycle Decisions for Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-32, April.
    19. Junyi Lu & Sebastian Meyer, 2020. "Forecasting Flu Activity in the United States: Benchmarking an Endemic-Epidemic Beta Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-13, February.
    20. Li, Jinxing & Liu, Tianyuan & Zhu, Guangya & Li, Yunzhu & Xie, Yonghui, 2023. "Uncertainty quantification and aerodynamic robust optimization of turbomachinery based on graph learning methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:4:p:781-:d:1334508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.