IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i5p2477-d1088361.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling of the Risk of Budget Variances of Cost Energy Consumption Using Probabilistic Quantification

Author

Listed:
  • Łukasz Kuźmiński

    (Department of Process Management, Wroclaw University of Economics and Business, 53-345 Wrocław, Poland)

  • Zdzisław Kes

    (Department of Process Management, Wroclaw University of Economics and Business, 53-345 Wrocław, Poland)

  • Veselin Draskovic

    (Faculty of Management, University of Social Sciences, 90-229 Lodz, Poland)

  • Andrzej Gawlik

    (Faculty of Environmental Management and Agriculture, West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, 71-494 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Marcin Rabe

    (Management Institute, University of Szczecin, 70-453 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Katarzyna Widera

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Opole University of Technology, 45-758 Opole, Poland)

  • Agnieszka Łopatka

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, University of Szczecin, 70-453 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Maciej Śniegowski

    (Doctoral School, University of Szczecin, 70-453 Szczecin, Poland)

Abstract

Budgets in organisational units are considered to be traditional management support tools. On the other hand, budgetary control is the essence of control measures, allowing for the increase in the efficiency of an enterprise through appropriate allocation of resources. The methodology used in the analysis of budget variances (obtained as a result of applying budgetary control) undoubtedly influences the management efficiency of almost every organizational unit. The authors indicate a research gap of methodological and application nature in the area of risk measurement in the analysis of budget variances. Therefore, the aim of the article is to create universal and flexible models enabling probabilistic quantification of the risk of budget variance regardless of the nature of the cost, the person budgeting and the budgeting unit. Extreme value theory was used to develop the model. The results of the work are models allowing for the estimation of the limit level of deviation for assumed probabilities and models determining the level of deviation for a given probability level. The application of these models in budgetary control will allow for a synthetic assessment of the degree of budget execution in the company, comparing the quality of budget execution over time as well as between units, defining the limits of materiality of budget variances. For the purpose of model verification, the authors have used budget variances of cost energy consumption, which have been determined on the basis of empirical distributions obtained from data coming from the system of budgetary control implemented at a university located in a larger European city.

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz Kuźmiński & Zdzisław Kes & Veselin Draskovic & Andrzej Gawlik & Marcin Rabe & Katarzyna Widera & Agnieszka Łopatka & Maciej Śniegowski, 2023. "Modelling of the Risk of Budget Variances of Cost Energy Consumption Using Probabilistic Quantification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:5:p:2477-:d:1088361
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/5/2477/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/5/2477/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stuart G. Coles & David Walshaw, 1994. "Directional Modelling of Extreme Wind Speeds," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 43(1), pages 139-157, March.
    2. Richard M. Duvall, 1967. "Rules for Investigating Cost Variances," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(10), pages 631-641, June.
    3. Kaplan, Rs, 1975. "Significance And Investigation Of Cost Variances - Survey And Extensions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 311-337.
    4. Davila, Tony & Wouters, Marc, 2005. "Managing budget emphasis through the explicit design of conditional budgetary slack," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 30(7-8), pages 587-608.
    5. Amrit L. Goel & S. M. Wu, 1973. "Economically Optimum Design of Cusum Charts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(11), pages 1271-1282, July.
    6. Fisher, Joseph G. & Frederickson, James R. & Peffer, Sean A., 2006. "Budget negotiations in multi-period settings," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 511-528, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fauré, Bertrand & Rouleau, Linda, 2011. "The strategic competence of accountants and middle managers in budget making," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 167-182, April.
    2. Anna Arcari & Anna Pistoni & Enrico Moretto & Paolo Ossola & Daniele Tonini, 2016. "How Italian companies are monitoring innovation," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 143-165.
    3. Dunk, Alan S., 2011. "Product innovation, budgetary control, and the financial performance of firms," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 102-111.
    4. Kilfoyle, Eksa & Richardson, Alan J., 2011. "Agency and structure in budgeting: Thesis, antithesis and synthesis," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 183-199.
    5. E. Zanini & E. Eastoe & M. J. Jones & D. Randell & P. Jonathan, 2020. "Flexible covariate representations for extremes," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), August.
    6. Anne M. Farrell & Joan Luft & Michael D. Shields, 2007. "Accuracy in Judging the Nonlinear Effects of Cost and Profit Drivers," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 1139-1169, December.
    7. Eric Oliver & Jinyu Sheng & Keith Thompson & Jorge Blanco, 2012. "Extreme surface and near-bottom currents in the northwest Atlantic," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1425-1446, November.
    8. Khalid Hasan Al Jasimee & Francisco Javier Blanco-Encomienda, 2023. "A SEM-NCA approach towards the impact of participative budgeting on budgetary slack and managerial performance: The mediating role of leadership style and leader-member exchange," Papers 2310.09993, arXiv.org.
    9. Arnold, Markus C. & Gillenkirch, Robert M., 2015. "Using negotiated budgets for planning and performance evaluation: An experimental study," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Ervin L. Black & F. Greg Burton & Joshua K. Cieslewicz, 2022. "Improving Ethics: Extending the Theory of Planned Behavior to Include Moral Disengagement," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 181(4), pages 945-978, December.
    11. Löning, Hélène & Besson, M. & Mendoza, Carla, 2008. "Dual use of budgeting in uncertainty contexts: Explorative study of senior sales and marketing managers," HEC Research Papers Series 897, HEC Paris.
    12. Wiersma, Eelke, 2017. "How and when do firms translate slack into better performance?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 445-459.
    13. Sebastian Goebel & Barbara Weißenberger, 2016. "The Dark Side of Tight Financial Control: Causes and Remedies of Dysfunctional Employee Behaviors," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 17(1), pages 69-101, April.
    14. Leonard Lira & Frances Edwards, 2022. "Police Budgeting: Using Overtime as a Management Tool," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 437-453, June.
    15. Markus Glaser & Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes & Zacharias Sautner, 2013. "Opening the Black Box: Internal Capital Markets and Managerial Power," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1577-1631, August.
    16. Christian Daumoser & Bernhard Hirsch & Matthias Sohn, 2018. "Honesty in budgeting: a review of morality and control aspects in the budgetary slack literature," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 115-159, August.
    17. Arnold, Markus & Artz, Martin, 2019. "The use of a single budget or separate budgets for planning and performance evaluation," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 50-67.
    18. M. Martin Boyer, 2004. "On the Use of Hierarchies to Complete Contracts when Players Have Limited Abilities," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-41, CIRANO.
    19. Madeleine Lopeman & George Deodatis & Guillermo Franco, 2015. "Extreme storm surge hazard estimation in lower Manhattan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 355-391, August.
    20. Staci A. Kenno & Michelle C. Lau & Barbara J. Sainty, 2018. "In Search of a Theory of Budgeting: A Literature Review," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 507-553, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:5:p:2477-:d:1088361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.