IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i3p1304-d1047297.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sizing of Small Hydropower Plants for Highly Variable Flows in Tropical Run-of-River Installations: A Case Study of the Sebeya River

Author

Listed:
  • Geoffrey Gasore

    (African Center of Excellence in Energy for Sustainable Development, University of Rwanda, Avenue de l’ Armée, Kigali P.O. Box 3900, Rwanda)

  • Arthur Santos

    (Energy Institute, Colorado State University, 430 N. College Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80524, USA)

  • Etienne Ntagwirumugara

    (African Center of Excellence in Energy for Sustainable Development, University of Rwanda, Avenue de l’ Armée, Kigali P.O. Box 3900, Rwanda)

  • Daniel Zimmerle

    (Energy Institute, Colorado State University, 430 N. College Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80524, USA)

Abstract

Rivers in tropical climates are characterized by highly variable flows which are becoming more variable due to climate change. In tropical conditions, most hydropower plants are designed as run-of-river plants with limited water storage. The aim of this study is the selection and sizing of a hydropower plant for highly variable flows, using the Sebeya River as a case study. As is often the case, flow data was incomplete, and the study also demonstrated the use of machine learning to predict the Sebeya flow rate for 2019. Stochastic modeling was used to estimate the energy generation for multiple turbine types and the levelized cost of energy for all configurations, capturing the uncertainty in many of the input parameters. River flow varies between 1.3 m 3 /s and 5.5 m 3 /s in a year; the minimum LCOE occurs at the knee in the flow exceedance curve of river flow rate, near 1.8 m 3 /s. The optimal LCOE for the Sebeya river is around 0.08 $/kwh with an uncertainty of −0.011/+0.009 $/kWh. Additionally, certain turbine types—notably propeller turbines—perform poorly in this type of highly variable flow. The method and findings can be used to guide future investments in small- to mid-sized hydropower plants in similar climatic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey Gasore & Arthur Santos & Etienne Ntagwirumugara & Daniel Zimmerle, 2023. "Sizing of Small Hydropower Plants for Highly Variable Flows in Tropical Run-of-River Installations: A Case Study of the Sebeya River," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1304-:d:1047297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1304/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1304/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ouyang, Xiaoling & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of renewable energies and required subsidies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 64-73.
    2. Jaewon Jung & Heechan Han & Kyunghun Kim & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Machine Learning-Based Small Hydropower Potential Prediction under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-10, June.
    3. Geoffrey Gasore & Helene Ahlborg & Etienne Ntagwirumugara & Daniel Zimmerle, 2021. "Progress for On-Grid Renewable Energy Systems: Identification of Sustainability Factors for Small-Scale Hydropower in Rwanda," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Aggidis, G.A. & Luchinskaya, E. & Rothschild, R. & Howard, D.C., 2010. "The costs of small-scale hydro power production: Impact on the development of existing potential," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2632-2638.
    5. Epari Ritesh Patro & Teegala Srinivasa Kishore & Ali Torabi Haghighi, 2022. "Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation by Small Hydropower Projects under Clean Development Mechanism in India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Shaojun Yang & Hua Wei & Le Zhang & Shengchao Qin, 2021. "Daily Power Generation Forecasting Method for a Group of Small Hydropower Stations Considering the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Precipitation—South China Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Singh, Vineet Kumar & Singal, S.K., 2017. "Operation of hydro power plants-a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 610-619.
    8. Michelle Sapitang & Wanie M. Ridwan & Khairul Faizal Kushiar & Ali Najah Ahmed & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2020. "Machine Learning Application in Reservoir Water Level Forecasting for Sustainable Hydropower Generation Strategy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    2. Okoroigwe, Edmund & Madhlopa, Amos, 2016. "An integrated combined cycle system driven by a solar tower: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 337-350.
    3. Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar & Aneesh A. Chand & Maria Malvoni & Kushal A. Prasad & Kabir A. Mamun & F.R. Islam & Shauhrat S. Chopra, 2020. "Distributed Energy Resources and the Application of AI, IoT, and Blockchain in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-42, November.
    4. Liu, Hailiang & Andresen, Gorm Bruun & Greiner, Martin, 2018. "Cost-optimal design of a simplified highly renewable Chinese electricity network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 534-546.
    5. Michels-Brito, Adriane & Rodriguez, Daniel Andrés & Cruz Junior, Wellington Luís & Nildo de Souza Vianna, João, 2021. "The climate change potential effects on the run-of-river plant and the environmental and economic dimensions of sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Ye, Bin & Yang, Peng & Jiang, Jingjing & Miao, Lixin & Shen, Bo & Li, Ji, 2017. "Feasibility and economic analysis of a renewable energy powered special town in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 40-50.
    7. Borkowski, Dariusz & Węgiel, Michał & Ocłoń, Paweł & Węgiel, Tomasz, 2019. "CFD model and experimental verification of water turbine integrated with electrical generator," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 875-883.
    8. Mo, Jian-Lei & Agnolucci, Paolo & Jiang, Mao-Rong & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of Chinese carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on low carbon energy (LCE) investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 271-283.
    9. Chen, Hao & Gao, Xin-Ya & Liu, Jian-Yu & Zhang, Qian & Yu, Shiwei & Kang, Jia-Ning & Yan, Rui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2020. "The grid parity analysis of onshore wind power in China: A system cost perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 22-30.
    10. Zhao, Zhen-Yu & Chen, Yu-Long & Thomson, John Douglas, 2017. "Levelized cost of energy modeling for concentrated solar power projects: A China study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 117-127.
    11. Xiong, Yongqing & Yang, Xiaohan, 2016. "Government subsidies for the Chinese photovoltaic industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 111-119.
    12. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    13. Ding, Tao & Sun, Yuge & Huang, Can & Mu, Chenlu & Fan, Yuqi & Lin, Jiang & Qin, Yining, 2022. "Pathways of clean energy heating electrification programs for reducing carbon emissions in Northwest China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Chen, Yufang, 2019. "Does electricity price matter for innovation in renewable energy technologies in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 259-266.
    15. Meita Rumbayan & Rilya Rumbayan, 2023. "Feasibility Study of a Micro Hydro Power Plant for Rural Electrification in Lalumpe Village, North Sulawesi, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-13, September.
    16. Magdalena Ligus, 2015. "An Analysis of Competitiveness and Potential of Renewable Energy Technologies in Poland," Energy & Environment, , vol. 26(8), pages 1247-1269, December.
    17. Židonis, Audrius & Benzon, David S. & Aggidis, George A., 2015. "Development of hydro impulse turbines and new opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1624-1635.
    18. Prakash, Vrishab & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2020. "Costs of avoided carbon emission from thermal and renewable sources of power in India and policy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    19. Timilsina, Govinda R., 2021. "Are renewable energy technologies cost competitive for electricity generation?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 658-672.
    20. He, Jiaxin & Liu, Ying & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Should China support the development of biomass power generation?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 416-425.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1304-:d:1047297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.