Risk Assessment of Power Supply Security Considering Optimal Load Shedding in Extreme Precipitation Scenarios

Extreme rainfall may induce flooding failures of electricity facilities, which poses power systems in a risk of power supply interruption. To quantitatively estimate the risk of power system operation under extreme rainfall, a multi-scenario stochastic risk assessment method was proposed. First, a scenario generation scheme considering waterlogged faults of power facilities was constructed based on the storm water management model (SWMM) and the extreme learning machine method. These scenarios were merged with several typical scenario sets for further processing. The outage of power facilities will induce power flow transfer which may consequently lead to transmission lines’ thermal limit violation. Semi-invariant and Gram–Charlier level expansion methods were adopted to analytically depict the probability density function and cumulative probability function of each line’s power flow. The optimal solution was performed by a particle swarm algorithm to obtain proper load curtailment at each bus, and consequently, the violation probability of line thermal violations can be controlled within an allowable range. The volume of load curtailment as well as their importance were considered to quantitatively assess the risk of power supply security under extreme precipitation scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified in case studies based on the Southeast Australia Power System. Simulation results indicated that the risk of load shedding in extreme precipitation scenarios can be quantitatively estimated, and the overload probability of lines can be controlled within the allowable range through the proposed optimal load shedding scheme.