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WRF Parameterizations of Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecasts for Cold Fronts in Central and Eastern Europe

Author

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  • Michał Mierzwiak

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Military University of Technology, gen. S. Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Kroszczyński

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Military University of Technology, gen. S. Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Andrzej Araszkiewicz

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Military University of Technology, gen. S. Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The solar power industry is a rapidly growing sector of renewable energy, and it is crucial that the available energy is accurately forecast. Using numerical weather prediction models, we can forecast the global horizontal irradiance on which the amount of energy produced by photovoltaic systems depends. This study presents the forecast effects for one of the most challenging weather conditions in modelling, occurring in central and eastern Europe. The dates of the synoptic situations were selected from 2021 and 2022. Simulations were carried out for 18 days with a cold front and, in order to verify the model configuration, for 2 days with a warm front, 2 days with an occlusion front and 2 days with a high pressure situation. Overall, 24 forecasts were made for each of the three parameterizations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The data were compared with the values measured in situ at the station performing the actinometric measurements belonging to Germany’s National Meteorological Service. This paper presents the spatial distribution of the global horizontal irradiance parameters for several terms to explain the differences between the results of the different simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Mierzwiak & Krzysztof Kroszczyński & Andrzej Araszkiewicz, 2023. "WRF Parameterizations of Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecasts for Cold Fronts in Central and Eastern Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:13:p:5136-:d:1185963
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zempila, Melina-Maria & Giannaros, Theodore M. & Bais, Alkiviadis & Melas, Dimitris & Kazantzidis, Andreas, 2016. "Evaluation of WRF shortwave radiation parameterizations in predicting Global Horizontal Irradiance in Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 831-840.
    2. Radosław Wolniak & Bożena Skotnicka-Zasadzień, 2022. "Development of Photovoltaic Energy in EU Countries as an Alternative to Fossil Fuels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Schleich, Joachim, 2019. "Energy efficient technology adoption in low-income households in the European Union – What is the evidence?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 196-206.
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