IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i9p3055-d799248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Combined Prediction Based on Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Whale Optimisation Algorithm, and Elman Network

Author

Listed:
  • Anfeng Zhu

    (Engineering Research Center of Hunan Province for the Mining and Utilization of Wind Turbines Operation Data, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China)

  • Qiancheng Zhao

    (Engineering Research Center of Hunan Province for the Mining and Utilization of Wind Turbines Operation Data, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China)

  • Xian Wang

    (Engineering Research Center of Hunan Province for the Mining and Utilization of Wind Turbines Operation Data, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China)

  • Ling Zhou

    (Engineering Research Center of Hunan Province for the Mining and Utilization of Wind Turbines Operation Data, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China)

Abstract

Accurate wind power forecasting helps relieve the regulation pressure of a power system, which is of great significance to the power system’s operation. However, achieving satisfactory results in wind power forecasting is highly challenging due to the random volatility characteristics of wind power sequences. This study proposes a novel ultra-short-term wind power combined prediction method based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, the whale optimization algorithm (WOA), and the Elman neural network model. The model can not only solve the phenomenon of easy modal mixing in decomposition but also avoid the problems of reconstruction error and low efficiency in the decomposition process. Furthermore, a new metaheuristic algorithm, WOA, was introduced to optimize the model and improve the accuracy of wind power prediction. Considering a wind farm as an example, several wind turbines were selected to simulate and analyse wind power by using the established prediction model, and the experimental results suggest that the proposed method has a higher prediction accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power than other prediction models.

Suggested Citation

  • Anfeng Zhu & Qiancheng Zhao & Xian Wang & Ling Zhou, 2022. "Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Combined Prediction Based on Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Whale Optimisation Algorithm, and Elman Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:9:p:3055-:d:799248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/9/3055/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/9/3055/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    2. Lujano-Rojas, J.M. & Osório, G.J. & Matias, J.C.O. & Catalão, J.P.S., 2016. "A heuristic methodology to economic dispatch problem incorporating renewable power forecasting error and system reliability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 731-743.
    3. Carta, José A. & Velázquez, Sergio & Cabrera, Pedro, 2013. "A review of measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methods used to estimate long-term wind characteristics at a target site," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 362-400.
    4. Khosravi, A. & Machado, L. & Nunes, R.O., 2018. "Time-series prediction of wind speed using machine learning algorithms: A case study Osorio wind farm, Brazil," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 550-566.
    5. Heinermann, Justin & Kramer, Oliver, 2016. "Machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 671-679.
    6. Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Shuai & Zeng, Bo & Lu, Haiyan, 2022. "A novel ensemble probabilistic forecasting system for uncertainty in wind speed," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    7. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2022. "Deep learning combined wind speed forecasting with hybrid time series decomposition and multi-objective parameter optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    8. Wang, Cong & Zhang, Hongli & Fan, Wenhui & Ma, Ping, 2017. "A new chaotic time series hybrid prediction method of wind power based on EEMD-SE and full-parameters continued fraction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 977-990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. G. Ponkumar & S. Jayaprakash & Karthick Kanagarathinam, 2023. "Advanced Machine Learning Techniques for Accurate Very-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting in Wind Energy Systems Using Historical Data Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Qiuhong Huang & Xiao Wang, 2022. "A Forecasting Model of Wind Power Based on IPSO–LSTM and Classified Fusion," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Hua Li & Zhen Wang & Binbin Shan & Lingling Li, 2022. "Research on Multi-Step Prediction of Short-Term Wind Power Based on Combination Model and Error Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Xiaomei Wu & Songjun Jiang & Chun Sing Lai & Zhuoli Zhao & Loi Lei Lai, 2022. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Data Decomposition and Combined Deep Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Yiyang Sun & Xiangwen Wang & Junjie Yang, 2022. "Modified Particle Swarm Optimization with Attention-Based LSTM for Wind Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Mineti, Leandro Brioschi & Prates, Marcos Oliveira, 2021. "Dynamic time scan forecasting for multi-step wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 584-595.
    2. Qin, Li & Liu, Shi & Kang, Yi & Yan, Song An & Inaki Schlaberg, H. & Wang, Zhan, 2019. "Wind velocity distribution reconstruction using CFD database with Tucker decomposition and sensor measurement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1236-1250.
    3. González-Sopeña, J.M. & Pakrashi, V. & Ghosh, B., 2021. "An overview of performance evaluation metrics for short-term statistical wind power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Pei Zhang & Chunping Li & Chunhua Peng & Jiangang Tian, 2020. "Ultra-Short-Term Prediction of Wind Power Based on Error Following Forget Gate-Based Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-13, October.
    5. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    6. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Pei, Ming & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Li, Zhuo, 2022. "Short-term wind power forecasting based on meteorological feature extraction and optimization strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 642-661.
    7. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
    8. Ana Lagos & Joaquín E. Caicedo & Gustavo Coria & Andrés Romero Quete & Maximiliano Martínez & Gastón Suvire & Jesús Riquelme, 2022. "State-of-the-Art Using Bibliometric Analysis of Wind-Speed and -Power Forecasting Methods Applied in Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-40, September.
    9. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Tang, Yong & Zhao, Yongning & Zhong, Wuzhi & Qu, Ying & Zhai, Bingxu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term combined prediction approach based on kernel function switch mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 842-866.
    10. Lahouar, A. & Ben Hadj Slama, J., 2017. "Hour-ahead wind power forecast based on random forests," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 529-541.
    11. Zheng, Chong Wei & Li, Chong Yin & Pan, Jing & Liu, Ming Yang & Xia, Lin Lin, 2016. "An overview of global ocean wind energy resource evaluations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1240-1251.
    12. Zheng, Chong Wei & Wang, Qing & Li, Chong Yin, 2017. "An overview of medium- to long-term predictions of global wave energy resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1492-1502.
    13. Yu, Ruiguo & Liu, Zhiqiang & Li, Xuewei & Lu, Wenhuan & Ma, Degang & Yu, Mei & Wang, Jianrong & Li, Bin, 2019. "Scene learning: Deep convolutional networks for wind power prediction by embedding turbines into grid space," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 249-257.
    14. Che, Jinxing & Yuan, Fang & Deng, Dewen & Jiang, Zheyong, 2023. "Ultra-short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting with spatial-temporal multi-scale features and K-FSDW based weight," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    15. Chitsazan, Mohammad Amin & Sami Fadali, M. & Trzynadlowski, Andrzej M., 2019. "Wind speed and wind direction forecasting using echo state network with nonlinear functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 879-889.
    16. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    17. Chi, Lixun & Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Li & Fan, Lin & Zhou, Jing & Bai, Hua, 2020. "Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Integrated Energy Systems with bi-directional conversion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    18. Tascikaraoglu, Akin & Sanandaji, Borhan M. & Poolla, Kameshwar & Varaiya, Pravin, 2016. "Exploiting sparsity of interconnections in spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting using Wavelet Transform," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 735-747.
    19. Liu, Xingdou & Zhang, Li & Wang, Jiangong & Zhou, Yue & Gan, Wei, 2023. "A unified multi-step wind speed forecasting framework based on numerical weather prediction grids and wind farm monitoring data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 948-963.
    20. Yıldıran, Uğur & Kayahan, İsmail, 2018. "Risk-averse stochastic model predictive control-based real-time operation method for a wind energy generation system supported by a pumped hydro storage unit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 631-643.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:9:p:3055-:d:799248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.