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A Practical Metric to Evaluate the Ramp Events of Wind Generating Resources to Enhance the Security of Smart Energy Systems

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  • EunJi Ahn

    (Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, Korea)

  • Jin Hur

    (Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, Korea)

Abstract

The energy industry, primarily based on the use of fossil fuels (e.g., coal and oil) is rapidly shifting toward renewable energy for securing sustainable resources. Thus, preparing for large wind power ramp events is essential to retain reliable and secure power systems. This study proposed a new statistical approach to predict wind power ramp events, and evaluated the performance of prediction. The empirical data, which is the observed wind power output data and wind speed data from Taebaek (South Korea) were used for analyzing ramp events and for evaluation. Based on the data analysis, a practical metric for evaluating the performance of wind power ramp events forecasting was developed and presented in detail. Notably, the accuracy of forecasting was evaluated through various metrics, whereas the normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) analysis demonstrated ≤ 10% values for all the analyzed months. In addition, a system review was conducted to check if the methodology suggested in this study has helped enhance the security of power systems. The results show that evaluating and considering the ramp events can improve the accuracy of wind power output forecasting which can secure the smart energy systems.

Suggested Citation

  • EunJi Ahn & Jin Hur, 2022. "A Practical Metric to Evaluate the Ramp Events of Wind Generating Resources to Enhance the Security of Smart Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:7:p:2676-:d:787819
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dorado-Moreno, M. & Cornejo-Bueno, L. & Gutiérrez, P.A. & Prieto, L. & Hervás-Martínez, C. & Salcedo-Sanz, S., 2017. "Robust estimation of wind power ramp events with reservoir computing," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 428-437.
    2. Cui, Yang & He, Yingjie & Xiong, Xiong & Chen, Zhenghong & Li, Fen & Xu, Taotao & Zhang, Fanghong, 2021. "Algorithm for identifying wind power ramp events via novel improved dynamic swinging door," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 542-556.
    3. Gallego-Castillo, Cristobal & Cuerva-Tejero, Alvaro & Lopez-Garcia, Oscar, 2015. "A review on the recent history of wind power ramp forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1148-1157.
    4. Cui, Mingjian & Zhang, Jie & Feng, Cong & Florita, Anthony R. & Sun, Yuanzhang & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2017. "Characterizing and analyzing ramping events in wind power, solar power, load, and netload," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 227-244.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo D’Amico & Filippo Petroni & Salvatore Vergine, 2022. "Ramp Rate Limitation of Wind Power: An Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-15, August.
    2. Hu, Jianming & Zhang, Liping & Tang, Jingwei & Liu, Zhi, 2023. "A novel transformer ordinal regression network with label diversity for wind power ramp events forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).

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