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Probabilistic Short-Term Load Forecasting Incorporating Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Photovoltaic (PV) Generation and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSs)

Author

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  • Ji-Won Cha

    (The School of Electrical Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Sung-Kwan Joo

    (The School of Electrical Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea)

Abstract

Increased behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generation causes additional errors in short-term load forecasting. To ensure power grid reliability, it is necessary to consider the influence of the behind-the-meter distributed resources. This study proposes a method to estimate the size of behind-the-meter assets by region to enhance load forecasting accuracy. This paper proposes a semi-supervised approach to BTM capacity estimation, including PV and battery energy storage systems (BESSs), to improve net load forecast using a probabilistic approach. A co-optimization is proposed to simultaneously optimize the hidden BTM capacity estimation and the expected improvement to the net load forecast. Finally, this paper presents a net load forecasting method that incorporates the results of BTM capacity estimation. To describe the efficiency of the proposed method, a study was conducted using actual utility data. The numerical results show that the proposed method improves the load forecasting accuracy by revealing the gross load pattern and reducing the influence of the BTM patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Ji-Won Cha & Sung-Kwan Joo, 2021. "Probabilistic Short-Term Load Forecasting Incorporating Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Photovoltaic (PV) Generation and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSs)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:21:p:7067-:d:667333
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Li, Kangping & Wang, Fei & Mi, Zengqiang & Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Mahmoud & Duić, Neven & Wang, Tieqiang, 2019. "Capacity and output power estimation approach of individual behind-the-meter distributed photovoltaic system for demand response baseline estimation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Keda Pan & Changhong Xie & Chun Sing Lai & Dongxiao Wang & Loi Lei Lai, 2020. "Photovoltaic Output Power Estimation and Baseline Prediction Approach for a Residential Distribution Network with Behind-the-Meter Systems," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Gangqiang Li & Huaizhi Wang & Shengli Zhang & Jiantao Xin & Huichuan Liu, 2019. "Recurrent Neural Networks Based Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Shaker, Hamid & Manfre, Daniel & Zareipour, Hamidreza, 2020. "Forecasting the aggregated output of a large fleet of small behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic sites," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 1861-1869.
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    Cited by:

    1. João Fausto L. de Oliveira & Paulo S. G. de Mattos Neto & Hugo Valadares Siqueira & Domingos S. de O. Santos & Aranildo R. Lima & Francisco Madeiro & Douglas A. P. Dantas & Mariana de Morais Cavalcant, 2023. "Forecasting Methods for Photovoltaic Energy in the Scenario of Battery Energy Storage Systems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-20, September.

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