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Availability and LCOE Analysis Considering Failure Rate and Downtime for Onshore Wind Turbines in Japan

Author

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  • Yuka Kikuchi

    (Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan)

  • Takeshi Ishihara

    (Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan)

Abstract

In this study, the availability and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) are investigated considering failure rate and downtime for onshore wind turbines in Japan. The failure mode effect analysis is conducted using the wind turbine failure database collected by the New Energy and Industrial Technology Department Organization (NEDO). The normalized failure rate and downtime between Europe and Japan are comparable. The occurrence rate is similar between Europe and Japan, but the downtime in Japan is much longer than that of Europe. Three cost-reduction scenarios are then proposed to improve availability and to reduce LCOE using assumed failure rate and downtime in each mode based on the industry interview and best practices in Japan. The availability is improved from 87.4% for the baseline scenario to 92.7%, 95.5% and 96.4% for the three scenarios, and LCOE is also reduced from 13.7 Yen/kWh to 11.9, 11.0 and 10.7 Yen/kWh. Finally, the probability distributions of downtime and repair cost are obtained for each failure mode. It is found that the probability distributions of the failure modes with the shortest downtime show similar probability distributions regardless of the size of the assembly. The effects of downtime and repair-cost uncertainties on LCOE are also evaluated.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuka Kikuchi & Takeshi Ishihara, 2021. "Availability and LCOE Analysis Considering Failure Rate and Downtime for Onshore Wind Turbines in Japan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:12:p:3528-:d:574585
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mahmood Shafiee & Fateme Dinmohammadi, 2014. "An FMEA-Based Risk Assessment Approach for Wind Turbine Systems: A Comparative Study of Onshore and Offshore," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Sebastian Pfaffel & Stefan Faulstich & Kurt Rohrig, 2017. "Performance and Reliability of Wind Turbines: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-27, November.
    3. Samet Ozturk & Vasilis Fthenakis & Stefan Faulstich, 2018. "Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis for Wind Turbines Considering Climatic Regions and Comparing Geared and Direct Drive Wind Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kikuchi, Yuka & Ishihara, Takeshi, 2023. "Assessment of capital expenditure for fixed-bottom offshore wind farms using probabilistic engineering cost model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).

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