IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i10p2488-d358370.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the Potentials of Artificial Neural Network Trained with Differential Evolution for Estimating Global Solar Radiation

Author

Listed:
  • Olubayo M. Babatunde

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, French South African Institute of Technology (F’SATI), Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria 0183, South Africa)

  • Josiah L. Munda

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, French South African Institute of Technology (F’SATI), Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria 0183, South Africa)

  • Yskandar Hamam

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, French South African Institute of Technology (F’SATI), Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria 0183, South Africa
    École Supérieure d’Ingénieurs en Électrotechnique et Électronique, Cité Descartes, 2 Boulevard Blaise Pascal, Noisy-le-Grand, 93160 Paris, France)

Abstract

The use of solar powered systems is gradually getting more attention due to technological advances as well as cost effectiveness. Thus, solar powered systems like photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, concentrator photovoltaics, as well as hydrogen production systems are now commercially available for electricity generation. A major input to these systems is solar radiation data which is either partially available or not available in many remote communities. Predictive models can be used in estimating the amount and pattern of solar radiation in any location. This paper presents the use of evolutionary algorithm in improving the generalization capabilities and efficiency of multilayer feed-forward artificial neural network for the prediction of solar radiation using meteorological parameters as input. Meteorological parameters which included monthly average daily of: sunshine hour, solar radiation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were used in the evaluation. Results show that the proposed model returned a RMSE of 1.1967, NSE of 0.8137 and R 2 of 0.8254.

Suggested Citation

  • Olubayo M. Babatunde & Josiah L. Munda & Yskandar Hamam, 2020. "Exploring the Potentials of Artificial Neural Network Trained with Differential Evolution for Estimating Global Solar Radiation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:10:p:2488-:d:358370
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/10/2488/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/10/2488/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohammadi, Kasra & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Kamsin, Amirrudin & Lai, P.C. & Mansor, Zulkefli, 2016. "Identifying the most significant input parameters for predicting global solar radiation using an ANFIS selection procedure," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 423-434.
    2. Damilola Elizabeth Babatunde & Ambrose Anozie & James Omoleye, 2020. "Artificial Neural Network and its Applications in the Energy Sector An Overview," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 250-264.
    3. Ramedani, Zeynab & Omid, Mahmoud & Keyhani, Alireza & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Khoshnevisan, Benyamin, 2014. "Potential of radial basis function based support vector regression for global solar radiation prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1005-1011.
    4. Bakirci, Kadir, 2009. "Correlations for estimation of daily global solar radiation with hours of bright sunshine in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 485-501.
    5. Alberto Bocca & Luca Bergamasco & Matteo Fasano & Lorenzo Bottaccioli & Eliodoro Chiavazzo & Alberto Macii & Pietro Asinari, 2018. "Multiple-Regression Method for Fast Estimation of Solar Irradiation and Photovoltaic Energy Potentials over Europe and Africa," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Rohani, Abbas & Taki, Morteza & Abdollahpour, Masoumeh, 2018. "A novel soft computing model (Gaussian process regression with K-fold cross validation) for daily and monthly solar radiation forecasting (Part: I)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 411-422.
    7. Yohanna, Jonathan K. & Itodo, Isaac N. & Umogbai, Victor I., 2011. "A model for determining the global solar radiation for Makurdi, Nigeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1989-1992.
    8. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Khalil, A. & Kaseb, S. & Kassem, M.A., 2017. "Exploring the potential of tree-based ensemble methods in solar radiation modeling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 897-916.
    9. Fan, Junliang & Chen, Baiquan & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Lu, Xianghui & Xiang, Youzhen, 2018. "Evaluation and development of temperature-based empirical models for estimating daily global solar radiation in humid regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 903-914.
    10. Bahel, V. & Srinivasan, R. & Bakhsh, H., 1987. "Statistical comparison of correlations for estimation of global horizontal solar radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(12), pages 1309-1316.
    11. Zou, Ling & Wang, Lunche & Xia, Li & Lin, Aiwen & Hu, Bo & Zhu, Hongji, 2017. "Prediction and comparison of solar radiation using improved empirical models and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 343-353.
    12. Wang, Lunche & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad & Salazar, Germán Ariel & Zhu, Zhongmin & Gong, Wei, 2016. "Solar radiation prediction using different techniques: model evaluation and comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 384-397.
    13. Ping-Huan Kuo & Hsin-Chuan Chen & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "Solar Radiation Estimation Algorithm and Field Verification in Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-12, May.
    14. Mauleón, Ignacio, 2019. "Assessing PV and wind roadmaps: Learning rates, risk, and social discounting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 71-89.
    15. Mohammadi, Kasra & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Petković, Dalibor & Khorasanizadeh, Hossein, 2016. "Determining the most important variables for diffuse solar radiation prediction using adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology; case study: City of Kerman, Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1570-1579.
    16. Kaur, Amanpreet & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Benefits of solar forecasting for energy imbalance markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 819-830.
    17. Baser, Furkan & Demirhan, Haydar, 2017. "A fuzzy regression with support vector machine approach to the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 229-240.
    18. Hussain, Sajid & Al-Alili, Ali, 2016. "A new approach for model validation in solar radiation using wavelet, phase and frequency coherence analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 639-649.
    19. Zhang, Jianyuan & Zhao, Li & Deng, Shuai & Xu, Weicong & Zhang, Ying, 2017. "A critical review of the models used to estimate solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 314-329.
    20. Halabi, Laith M. & Mekhilef, Saad & Hossain, Monowar, 2018. "Performance evaluation of hybrid adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system models for predicting monthly global solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 247-261.
    21. Halawa, Edward & GhaffarianHoseini, AmirHosein & Hin Wa Li, Danny, 2014. "Empirical correlations as a means for estimating monthly average daily global radiation: A critical overview," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 149-153.
    22. Seyed Abbas Mousavi Maleki & H. Hizam & Chandima Gomes, 2017. "Estimation of Hourly, Daily and Monthly Global Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces: Models Re-Visited," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, January.
    23. Bahel, V. & Bakhsh, H. & Srinivasan, R., 1987. "A correlation for estimation of global solar radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 131-135.
    24. Xiangtao Li & Minghao Yin, 2012. "Application of Differential Evolution Algorithm on Self-Potential Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-11, December.
    25. Wassie, Yibeltal T. & Adaramola, Muyiwa S., 2019. "Potential environmental impacts of small-scale renewable energy technologies in East Africa: A systematic review of the evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 377-391.
    26. Lanre Olatomiwa & Saad Mekhilef & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Dalibor Petkovic, 2015. "Potential of support vector regression for solar radiation prediction in Nigeria," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1055-1068, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lioua Kolsi & Sameer Al-Dahidi & Souad Kamel & Walid Aich & Sahbi Boubaker & Nidhal Ben Khedher, 2022. "Prediction of Solar Energy Yield Based on Artificial Intelligence Techniques for the Ha’il Region, Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Domenico Palladino & Iole Nardi & Cinzia Buratti, 2020. "Artificial Neural Network for the Thermal Comfort Index Prediction: Development of a New Simplified Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-27, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Zeng, Wenzhi & Wang, Xiukang & Zou, Haiyang, 2019. "Empirical and machine learning models for predicting daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration: A review and case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 186-212.
    2. Olatomiwa, Lanre & Mekhilef, Saad & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Petković, Dalibor, 2015. "Adaptive neuro-fuzzy approach for solar radiation prediction in Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1784-1791.
    3. Kisi, Ozgur & Heddam, Salim & Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, 2019. "The implementation of univariable scheme-based air temperature for solar radiation prediction: New development of dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 184-195.
    4. Keshtegar, Behrooz & Mert, Cihan & Kisi, Ozgur, 2018. "Comparison of four heuristic regression techniques in solar radiation modeling: Kriging method vs RSM, MARS and M5 model tree," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 330-341.
    5. Bayrakçı, Hilmi Cenk & Demircan, Cihan & Keçebaş, Ali, 2018. "The development of empirical models for estimating global solar radiation on horizontal surface: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2771-2782.
    6. Mohamed Chaibi & EL Mahjoub Benghoulam & Lhoussaine Tarik & Mohamed Berrada & Abdellah El Hmaidi, 2021. "An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Daily Global Solar Radiation Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Prieto, Jesús-Ignacio & García, David, 2022. "Global solar radiation models: A critical review from the point of view of homogeneity and case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    8. Achour, Lazhar & Bouharkat, Malek & Assas, Ouarda & Behar, Omar, 2017. "Hybrid model for estimating monthly global solar radiation for the Southern of Algeria: (Case study: Tamanrasset, Algeria)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 526-539.
    9. Zang, Haixiang & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Cheung, Kwok W. & Wang, Miaomiao & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2019. "Estimation and validation of daily global solar radiation by day of the year-based models for different climates in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 984-1003.
    10. Chen, Ji-Long & He, Lei & Yang, Hong & Ma, Maohua & Chen, Qiao & Wu, Sheng-Jun & Xiao, Zuo-lin, 2019. "Empirical models for estimating monthly global solar radiation: A most comprehensive review and comparative case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 91-111.
    11. Bouchouicha, Kada & Hassan, Muhammed A. & Bailek, Nadjem & Aoun, Nouar, 2019. "Estimating the global solar irradiation and optimizing the error estimates under Algerian desert climate," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 844-858.
    12. Halabi, Laith M. & Mekhilef, Saad & Hossain, Monowar, 2018. "Performance evaluation of hybrid adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system models for predicting monthly global solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 247-261.
    13. Mecibah, Mohamed Salah & Boukelia, Taqiy Eddine & Tahtah, Reda & Gairaa, Kacem, 2014. "Introducing the best model for estimation the monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (Case study: Algeria)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 194-202.
    14. Rodrigues, Eugénio & Gomes, Álvaro & Gaspar, Adélio Rodrigues & Henggeler Antunes, Carlos, 2018. "Estimation of renewable energy and built environment-related variables using neural networks – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 959-988.
    15. Ahmed Aljanad & Nadia M. L. Tan & Vassilios G. Agelidis & Hussain Shareef, 2021. "Neural Network Approach for Global Solar Irradiance Prediction at Extremely Short-Time-Intervals Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.
    16. Qiu, Rangjian & Li, Longan & Wu, Lifeng & Agathokleous, Evgenios & Liu, Chunwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Luo, Yufeng & Sun, Shanlei, 2022. "Modeling daily global solar radiation using only temperature data: Past, development, and future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    17. Guosheng Duan & Lifeng Wu & Fa Liu & Yicheng Wang & Shaofei Wu, 2022. "Improvement in Solar-Radiation Forecasting Based on Evolutionary KNEA Method and Numerical Weather Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, June.
    18. Kambezidis, H.D. & Psiloglou, B.E. & Karagiannis, D. & Dumka, U.C. & Kaskaoutis, D.G., 2017. "Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM v6.1): Improvements in diffuse radiation estimates and a new approach for implementation of cloud products," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 616-637.
    19. Khalil, Samy A. & Shaffie, A.M., 2013. "A comparative study of total, direct and diffuse solar irradiance by using different models on horizontal and inclined surfaces for Cairo, Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 853-863.
    20. Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Mohammadi, Kasra & Yee, Por Lip & Petković, Dalibor & Mostafaeipour, Ali, 2015. "A comparative evaluation for identifying the suitability of extreme learning machine to predict horizontal global solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1031-1042.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:10:p:2488-:d:358370. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.