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Optimal Decomposition and Reconstruction of Discrete Wavelet Transformation for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Happy Aprillia

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, East Dist., Tainan City 701, Taiwan)

  • Hong-Tzer Yang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, East Dist., Tainan City 701, Taiwan)

  • Chao-Ming Huang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Kun-Shan University, Yongkang Dist., Tainan City 710, Taiwan)

Abstract

To achieve high accuracy in prediction, a load forecasting algorithm must model various consumer behaviors in response to weather conditions or special events. Different triggers will have various effects on different customers and lead to difficulties in constructing an adequate prediction model due to non-stationary and uncertain characteristics in load variations. This paper proposes an open-ended model of short-term load forecasting (STLF) which has general prediction ability to capture the non-linear relationship between the load demand and the exogenous inputs. The prediction method uses the whale optimization algorithm, discrete wavelet transform, and multiple linear regression model (WOA-DWT-MLR model) to predict both system load and aggregated load of power consumers. WOA is used to optimize the best combination of detail and approximation signals from DWT to construct an optimal MLR model. The proposed model is validated with both the system-side data set and the end-user data set for Independent System Operator-New England (ISO-NE) and smart meter load data, respectively, based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. The results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves lower prediction error than existing methods and can have consistent prediction of non-stationary load conditions that exist in both test systems. The proposed method is, thus, beneficial to use in the energy management system.

Suggested Citation

  • Happy Aprillia & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2019. "Optimal Decomposition and Reconstruction of Discrete Wavelet Transformation for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:24:p:4654-:d:295411
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hernández, Luis & Baladrón, Carlos & Aguiar, Javier M. & Carro, Belén & Sánchez-Esguevillas, Antonio & Lloret, Jaime, 2014. "Artificial neural networks for short-term load forecasting in microgrids environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 252-264.
    2. Chen, Yongbao & Xu, Peng & Chu, Yiyi & Li, Weilin & Wu, Yuntao & Ni, Lizhou & Bao, Yi & Wang, Kun, 2017. "Short-term electrical load forecasting using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to calculate the demand response baseline for office buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 659-670.
    3. Luis Hernández & Carlos Baladrón & Javier M. Aguiar & Lorena Calavia & Belén Carro & Antonio Sánchez-Esguevillas & Francisco Pérez & Ángel Fernández & Jaime Lloret, 2014. "Artificial Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Distribution Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jieyun Zheng & Linyao Zhang & Jinpeng Chen & Guilian Wu & Shiyuan Ni & Zhijian Hu & Changhong Weng & Zhi Chen, 2021. "Multiple-Load Forecasting for Integrated Energy System Based on Copula-DBiLSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Mohamed Massaoudi & Shady S. Refaat & Haitham Abu-Rub & Ines Chihi & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2020. "PLS-CNN-BiLSTM: An End-to-End Algorithm-Based Savitzky–Golay Smoothing and Evolution Strategy for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-29, October.
    3. Desmon Simatupang & Ilman Sulaeman & Niek Moonen & Rinaldi Maulana & Safitri Baharuddin & Amalia Suryani & Jelena Popovic & Frank Leferink, 2021. "Remote Microgrids for Energy Access in Indonesia—Part II: PV Microgrids and a Technology Outlook," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-18, October.
    4. David Watling & Patrícia Baptista & Gonçalo Duarte & Jianbing Gao & Haibo Chen, 2022. "Systematic Method for Developing Reference Driving Cycles Appropriate to Electric L-Category Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-28, May.
    5. Haben, Stephen & Arora, Siddharth & Giasemidis, Georgios & Voss, Marcus & Vukadinović Greetham, Danica, 2021. "Review of low voltage load forecasting: Methods, applications, and recommendations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    6. Ibrahim Salem Jahan & Vaclav Snasel & Stanislav Misak, 2020. "Intelligent Systems for Power Load Forecasting: A Study Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-12, November.

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