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One-Hour Prediction of the Global Solar Irradiance from All-Sky Images Using Artificial Neural Networks

Author

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  • Cristian Crisosto

    (Institute for Meteorology and Climatology, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Herrenhäuser Straße 2, 30419 Hannover, Germany)

  • Martin Hofmann

    (Institute for Meteorology and Climatology, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Herrenhäuser Straße 2, 30419 Hannover, Germany
    Valentin Software GmbH, Stralauer Platz 34, 10243 Berlin, Germany)

  • Riyad Mubarak

    (Institute for Meteorology and Climatology, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Herrenhäuser Straße 2, 30419 Hannover, Germany)

  • Gunther Seckmeyer

    (Institute for Meteorology and Climatology, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Herrenhäuser Straße 2, 30419 Hannover, Germany)

Abstract

We present a method to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) one hour ahead in one-minute resolution using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). A feed-forward neural network with Levenberg–Marquardt Backpropagation (LM-BP) was used and was trained with four years of data from all-sky images and measured global irradiance as input. The pictures were recorded by a hemispheric sky imager at the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (IMuK) of the Leibniz Universität Hannover, Hannover, Germany (52.23° N, 09.42° E, and 50 m above sea level). The time series of the global horizontal irradiance was measured using a thermopile pyranometer at the same site. The new method was validated with a test dataset from the same source. The irradiance is predicted for the first 10–30 min very well; after this time, the length of which is dependent on the weather conditions, the agreement between predicted and observed irradiance is reasonable. Considering the limited range that the camera and the ANN can “see”, this is not surprising. When comparing the results to the persistence model, we observed that the forecast accuracy of the new model reduced both the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the one-hour prediction by approximately 40% compared to the reference persistence model under various weather conditions, which demonstrates the high capability of the algorithm, especially within the first minutes.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristian Crisosto & Martin Hofmann & Riyad Mubarak & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2018. "One-Hour Prediction of the Global Solar Irradiance from All-Sky Images Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:11:p:2906-:d:178301
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Logothetis, Stavros-Andreas & Salamalikis, Vasileios & Wilbert, Stefan & Remund, Jan & Zarzalejo, Luis F. & Xie, Yu & Nouri, Bijan & Ntavelis, Evangelos & Nou, Julien & Hendrikx, Niels & Visser, Lenna, 2022. "Benchmarking of solar irradiance nowcast performance derived from all-sky imagers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 246-261.
    2. Muzhou Hou & Tianle Zhang & Futian Weng & Mumtaz Ali & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2018. "Global Solar Radiation Prediction Using Hybrid Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Giorgio Guariso & Giuseppe Nunnari & Matteo Sangiorgio, 2020. "Multi-Step Solar Irradiance Forecasting and Domain Adaptation of Deep Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Arumugham, Dinesh Rajan & Rajendran, Parvathy, 2021. "Modelling global solar irradiance for any location on earth through regression analysis using high-resolution data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 1114-1123.
    5. Qu, Jiaqi & Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan, 2021. "Day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting using attention-based CNN-LSTM neural network embedded with multiple relevant and target variables prediction pattern," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    6. Musaed Alhussein & Syed Irtaza Haider & Khursheed Aurangzeb, 2019. "Microgrid-Level Energy Management Approach Based on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Speed and Solar Irradiance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-27, April.
    7. Bikhtiyar Ameen & Heiko Balzter & Claire Jarvis & James Wheeler, 2019. "Modelling Hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance from Satellite-Derived Datasets and Climate Variables as New Inputs with Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, January.
    8. Cristian Crisosto & Eduardo W. Luiz & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2021. "Convolutional Neural Network for High-Resolution Cloud Motion Prediction from Hemispheric Sky Images," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-11, February.
    9. Wen-Chang Tsai & Chia-Sheng Tu & Chih-Ming Hong & Whei-Min Lin, 2023. "A Review of State-of-the-Art and Short-Term Forecasting Models for Solar PV Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-30, July.
    10. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Vateanui Sansine & Pascal Ortega & Daniel Hissel & Marania Hopuare, 2022. "Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasting Using Machine Learning, Metaheuristic Models and Numerical Weather Predictions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    12. Mahmoud Dhimish & Pavlos I. Lazaridis, 2022. "Approximating Shading Ratio Using the Total-Sky Imaging System: An Application for Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, November.

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