IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v232y2021ics0360544221012445.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting using attention-based CNN-LSTM neural network embedded with multiple relevant and target variables prediction pattern

Author

Listed:
  • Qu, Jiaqi
  • Qian, Zheng
  • Pei, Yan

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic power plays a pivotal role in the integration, operation, and scheduling of smart grid systems. Notably, volatility and intermittence of solar energy are the primary constraints influencing the accuracy of photovoltaic power prediction. This work proposes, an attention-based long-term and short-term temporal neural network prediction model (ALSM) assembled using the convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), and attention mechanism under the multiple relevant and target variables prediction pattern (MRTPP). This is geared towards capturing the short-term and long-term temporal modes and achieving the day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting. The proposed method is verified by the historical data of the photovoltaic system downloaded from the DKASC website. Consequently, the results indicate that the forecasting accuracy using the MRTPP pattern is better than those common input-output prediction patterns. Moreover, the proposed ALSM model under the MRTPP pattern demonstrates more superiority compared to a few PV power forecasting methods including the statistical methods as well as artificial intelligence methods. Subsequently, different important parameters affecting the accuracy of forecasting range of the model are analyzed, and suggestions on memory lengths corresponding to the divergent prediction range are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Qu, Jiaqi & Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan, 2021. "Day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting using attention-based CNN-LSTM neural network embedded with multiple relevant and target variables prediction pattern," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:232:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221012445
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120996
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221012445
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120996?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Kim, Tae-Young & Cho, Sung-Bae, 2019. "Predicting residential energy consumption using CNN-LSTM neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 72-81.
    3. Lan, Hai & Zhang, Chi & Hong, Ying-Yi & He, Yin & Wen, Shuli, 2019. "Day-ahead spatiotemporal solar irradiation forecasting using frequency-based hybrid principal component analysis and neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 389-402.
    4. Cervone, Guido & Clemente-Harding, Laura & Alessandrini, Stefano & Delle Monache, Luca, 2017. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks and an Analog Ensemble," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 274-286.
    5. Gao, Mingming & Li, Jianjing & Hong, Feng & Long, Dongteng, 2019. "Day-ahead power forecasting in a large-scale photovoltaic plant based on weather classification using LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    6. Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo & Wang, Qin & Chartan, Erol & Florita, Anthony & Kiviluoma, Juha, 2018. "The combined value of wind and solar power forecasting improvements and electricity storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "A comparison of day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on deep learning neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Cristian Crisosto & Martin Hofmann & Riyad Mubarak & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2018. "One-Hour Prediction of the Global Solar Irradiance from All-Sky Images Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, October.
    9. Mellit, A. & Sağlam, S. & Kalogirou, S.A., 2013. "Artificial neural network-based model for estimating the produced power of a photovoltaic module," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 71-78.
    10. Leloux, Jonathan & Narvarte, Luis & Trebosc, David, 2012. "Review of the performance of residential PV systems in France," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1369-1376.
    11. Qing, Xiangyun & Niu, Yugang, 2018. "Hourly day-ahead solar irradiance prediction using weather forecasts by LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 461-468.
    12. Li, Pengtao & Zhou, Kaile & Lu, Xinhui & Yang, Shanlin, 2020. "A hybrid deep learning model for short-term PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    13. Sharadga, Hussein & Hajimirza, Shima & Balog, Robert S., 2020. "Time series forecasting of solar power generation for large-scale photovoltaic plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 797-807.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xiaoyang & Sun, Yunlin & Luo, Duo & Peng, Jinqing, 2022. "Comparative study of machine learning approaches for predicting short-term photovoltaic power output based on weather type classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    2. Zhen, Hao & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Shi, Yucheng & Ji, Zhengsen & Xu, Xiaomin, 2021. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based on GA improved Bi-LSTM in microgrid without meteorological information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Khan, Waqas & Walker, Shalika & Zeiler, Wim, 2022. "Improved solar photovoltaic energy generation forecast using deep learning-based ensemble stacking approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    4. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    5. Cheng, Lilin & Zang, Haixiang & Wei, Zhinong & Zhang, Fengchun & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Evaluation of opaque deep-learning solar power forecast models towards power-grid applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 960-972.
    6. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Liu, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Liu, Wuming, 2022. "Time series forecasting for hourly photovoltaic power using conditional generative adversarial network and Bi-LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    7. Korkmaz, Deniz, 2021. "SolarNet: A hybrid reliable model based on convolutional neural network and variational mode decomposition for hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    8. Khan, Zulfiqar Ahmad & Hussain, Tanveer & Baik, Sung Wook, 2023. "Dual stream network with attention mechanism for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    9. Xu, Fang Yuan & Tang, Rui Xin & Xu, Si Bin & Fan, Yi Liang & Zhou, Ya & Zhang, Hao Tian, 2021. "Neural network-based photovoltaic generation capacity prediction system with benefit-oriented modification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    10. Yunzhu Gao & Jun Wang & Lin Guo & Hong Peng, 2024. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Nonlinear Spiking Neural P Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    11. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Zhang, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Gao, Bixuan & Liu, Wuming, 2021. "Hybrid deep neural model for hourly solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1041-1060.
    12. Gao, Bixuan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Shi, Junsheng & Tai, Yonghang & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Hourly forecasting of solar irradiance based on CEEMDAN and multi-strategy CNN-LSTM neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1665-1683.
    13. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhou, Yilin & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Hour-ahead photovoltaic generation forecasting method based on machine learning and multi objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    14. du Plessis, A.A. & Strauss, J.M. & Rix, A.J., 2021. "Short-term solar power forecasting: Investigating the ability of deep learning models to capture low-level utility-scale Photovoltaic system behaviour," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    15. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "A comparison of day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on deep learning neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Lu, Renzhi & Bai, Ruichang & Ding, Yuemin & Wei, Min & Jiang, Junhui & Sun, Mingyang & Xiao, Feng & Zhang, Hai-Tao, 2021. "A hybrid deep learning-based online energy management scheme for industrial microgrid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    18. Anh Ngoc-Lan Huynh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Duc-Anh An-Vo & Mumtaz Ali & Nawin Raj & Shahab Abdulla, 2020. "Near Real-Time Global Solar Radiation Forecasting at Multiple Time-Step Horizons Using the Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    19. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    20. Yuan An & Kaikai Dang & Xiaoyu Shi & Rong Jia & Kai Zhang & Qiang Huang, 2021. "A Probabilistic Ensemble Prediction Method for PV Power in the Nonstationary Period," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:232:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221012445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.