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Is The Median Voter Hypothesis Valid in Developed Countries?

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  • Yasin KARADENÄ°Z

Abstract

According to the median-voter hypothesis, the size of the public sector in terms of the redistribution of income is determined by the majority rule. This hypothesis suggests that an increase in average income relative to median income increases the size of government, because voters that have the median income are the decision-making voters. The meaning of the size of the public sector here is social expenditures, tax rates, and public debts. This paper aims to analyze the validity of the median-voter hypothesis on the basis of 24 developed countries for the period 2004-2018. Results of the analysis conducted via the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond Two-Stage System Generalized Method of Moments influentially support the claims of the median voter hypothesis about social expenditures, tax rates, and public debts. Results are also valid in terms of their different versions that include control variables of the constructed master patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasin KARADENÄ°Z, 2025. "Is The Median Voter Hypothesis Valid in Developed Countries?," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:fis:journl:250117
    DOI: 10.25295/fsecon.1451286
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gouveia, Miguel & Masia, Neal A, 1998. "Does the Median Voter Model Explain the Size of Government?: Evidence from the States," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 97(1-2), pages 159-177, October.
    2. Valentino Larcinese, 2007. "Voting over Redistribution and the Size of the Welfare State: The Role of Turnout," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 55(3), pages 568-585, October.
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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